- We all want the Europeans to do more, to be more active in their own defense, to volunteer earlier, to provide more funding and more support to places like Ukraine.

We all want that.

But I think it all depends on how you view the American role in the world.

(upbeat music) - Hello and welcome to GZERO World.

I'm Ian Bremmer, and I'm coming to you from Munich, Germany, site of the 61st annual Munich Security Conference.

Leaders and defense officials from around the globe gathered here to discuss the world's most urgent security challenges, from ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, to the threat of artificial intelligence and climate change.

But the biggest story by far here in Munich is the new US administration.

The second Trump term that Europe has been anxiously anticipating over the past months is now firmly underway and with it comes a White House with a skeptical view of their own global alliances and a much more transactional approach to diplomacy.

Governments are now scrambling to adjust and meet the new reality.

The Western unity that has been on display in Munich for the last three years is no longer.

In a blistering speech, Vice President JD Vance told European leaders there was a "new sheriff in town," criticizing them for censoring their own far-right voices and failing to control migration.

- The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor.

And what I worry about is the threat from within.

- So, where does America's relationship with Europe go from here?

I'm talking with US Senator Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and Pentagon official about the shift in US foreign policy, the NATO alliance, and the future of European security.

And later, a Ukrainian official says no matter what message comes from Washington, Moscow still poses a threat to all of Europe.

Don't worry, I've also got your Puppet Regime.

- Hi, welcome back to new episode of "Putin' It Out There."

- But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

- [Announcer] Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Narrator] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint (dramatic music) and scale their supply chains.

With a portfolio of logistics and real estate, and an end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Announcer] And by: Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

Cox is working to create an impact in areas like sustainable agriculture, clean tech, healthcare, and more.

Cox, a family of businesses.

Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and: (upbeat music) (dramatic music) (gunfire pops) - The war was dragging on with no end in sight.

Russia gaining ground in the east.

Ukraine on the back foot.

Casualties mounting.

Kyiv's supporters wanted to end the fighting, and a settlement seemed inevitable.

Does that sound familiar?

It should.

We've seen this before.

A decade ago, after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, a battered Ukraine was pushed to sign the Minsk Protocol, a ceasefire that was brokered by France and Germany, but with no real muscle behind it, no security guarantees, no real leverage.

So Russian President, Vladimir Putin had no incentive, no carrot, no stick, not to resume his goal of domination over Ukraine.

Fighting subsided, but it never fully stopped, and we all know what happened next.

(explosion booms) Today in 2025, three years after Russia launched its full scale invasion, Europe faces a choice: avoid repeating Minsk's mistakes, or prepare for more Russian aggression down the line.

But can Europe go it alone?

With President Trump back in the White House, he has made it clear the United States will not foot the bill any longer, regardless of what happens to Ukraine.

- They may make a deal, they may not make a deal, they may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday, but we're gonna have all this money in there, and I say I want it back.

- On February 10th, the White House announced President Trump and Putin had a lengthy and productive call, rattling NATO allies who weren't told in advance, and leading to fears that the Europeans and the Ukrainians could be left on the sidelines of any ceasefire negotiations.

Now, whatever happens at the negotiating table, the Trump administration is emphatic that Europe is responsible for maintaining its own peace.

- The Trump administration is very concerned with European security, and believes that we can come to a reasonable settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

And we also believe that it's important in the coming years for Europe to step up in a big way to provide for its own defense.

- Can Europe hold the line in Ukraine without US support?

President Volodymyr Zelensky doesn't think so.

He has said, "Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees."

Because here's the challenge: European Union, for all its economic might and moral outrage over Russia's aggression, is not a military powerhouse.

It's a collection of states, each with their own priorities, their own political constraints, and their own defense budgets that, for the most part, have been woefully underfunded for decades.

Even after three years of war, many European countries still fall short of NATO's wholly inadequate 2% GDP defense spending target, and that means Europe has a lot of catching up to do before it could realistically replace the United States in supporting Ukraine militarily.

Could they get there?

Maybe.

Europe is ramping up weapons production.

Some countries, like the Baltics and Poland, have significantly increased defense spending.

France has even floated the idea of sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine's borders, though whether that's a realistic possibility is far from clear.

And Trump is, above all, transactional.

He expects a good deal, at least for him.

And now a friendly call with Putin won't end the war, but it does create a new diplomatic reality: one where Europe is on the outside looking in.

So, what's next?

Europe will have to answer a question that it has avoided for decades now: Can it be a serious geopolitical player without its ally, the United States, leading the way?

And right now the answer is not yet.

But if Trump continues his go-it-alone approach, Europe may have no other choice.

Joining me today to talk about the future of European security and where the US-NATO relationship goes from here is Michigan Senator, Elissa Slotkin.

Senator Elissa Slotkin, thanks so much for joining us.

- Of course.

Happy to be here.

- You and I just came out of the mosh pit that was Vice President JD Vance.

Gave a speech last year, but it's a lot bigger speech, and there weren't any seats to be had.

Give me your initial takeaways from that.

- Well, look, first of all, we're here at this big European Security Conference.

- Security Conference, yes.

- The issue that's on everyone's mind, where they're looking for some sort of hint at what President Trump is gonna do, he didn't offer a single iota.

And maybe that makes a statement in and of itself.

And then he did what I think this administration uses as their playbook; he punched others, rather than talk about the United States.

He talked about issues with democracy in the United Kingdom and Romania and all these other European countries.

He picked out specific cases of people being arrested with sort of a lack of any EQ about what's going on in the United States.

And I think the irony felt a little tough for those of us watching, knowing what the Trump administration is going through right now and what they're doing in Washington.

So, he wanted to create sparks, he did that, but he did not address the single, solitary, biggest issue on the mind of everyone at this conference, and I think tells you exactly where they are, actually.

- I saw the German Defense Minister actually yell out in the middle of the speech, "This is unacceptable."

A lot of people didn't realize who it was that was yelling.

- I did not.

- I haven't seen something like that, frankly, since the Russians were here speaking, and I kind of wonder what was the sense you got from the Europeans around the room, and how they were reacting to what they're seeing right now from this administration?

- Yeah, look, it was a very quiet room, and even the applause was muted.

And Vance made a joke about that.

He said, "I'm sure I'm not gonna get much applause."

So, I don't think that he was looking to people please, but I think the sheer idea of having a NATO Allied Defense Minister yell at the Vice President of the United States, I'd have to go back and see if we've ever done that as allies, it just shows you the stress in the system right now.

People want to know what the United States is gonna do.

There's a lotta uncertainty.

We met with President Zelensky today.

And I think him pushing back on other European nations wasn't the thing they were looking to hear.

- Now, privately in the meetings that Vice President Vance was having with the Germans, my takeaways have been more balanced.

In other words, this speech was a lot for his own audience, maybe some from the AfD in Germany as well.

But talking in a more constructive way about yes, we know the Ukrainians need to be part of the process, the Europeans need to be part of the process.

Do you feel a little bit of that, that actually when we're not doing the hot takes in front of everybody, that actually the business of the alliance is a little more constructive?

- Well, I think, yeah, there's been a lot of meetings, which is good, right?

There's been a lot of conversations.

I've been in the ones with my Senate colleagues, Democrats and Republicans, and I still think there's a lot of voices coming out of this administration.

I still think it's hard to figure out what their approach is to Europe.

And President Trump has told people that he's gonna cut off all aid to Ukraine, but aid is still going to Ukraine.

He said he's gonna negotiate with Putin, sends his Defense Minister to be hard line, and then walks it all back.

So, I think there's still a lot of questions, even if the meetings are friendly and productive.

- Now, Zelensky was clearly surprised by a 90-minute phone call between Trump and Putin, and the initial conversations we saw from Zelensky were a bit of, "Yeah, this isn't any way to run the relationship."

When you saw him today, when the congressional delegation saw him, how would you say, did anything he said surprise you, in terms of his level of comfort with the situation, or willingness to criticize any of that?

- I think he was looking to a bipartisan group of senators to say, "Hey, we've had a long relationship.

We need to make sure that we don't screw this thing up right at the end of the 10-yard line."

I think that he got- - Did it feel like the end?

Does he recognize that, "Yeah, we gotta find a way to end the fighting here?"

- Well, look, he's the president of a country that's in the middle of a war, so he's not gonna concede that we need to get right to the negotiating table.

He's worried about conversations happening without him, right?

And I think, I've worked at the Pentagon, I'm a CIA officer by training.

Our golden rule is you don't talk about them without them.

And I think that's what went on last week.

And I think we tried to sort of support him by saying, "Look, we see this as a bigger issue than just Russia/Ukraine."

The Chinese are watching everything that's going on here.

They're watching American staying power.

They're trying to understand, "Does America actually even care about democracies getting invaded, or will they kinda roll over eventually?"

'Cause that's interesting for them, for Taiwan and a bunch of other places in Asia.

And so I think that contextualizing this as a global issue is very important for him, for the senators that have long supported Ukraine, and I think he is trying to understand the voices coming out of the administration too.

Right?

I think it's still hard to figure out.

- Now, Ursula von der Leyen, speaking right before Vice President Vance, talking about a transatlantic relationship in crisis.

A recognition that Europe has not taken a lotta these issues as seriously as they should.

They need to be much more competitive, spend a lot more.

But also saying that Ukraine is not just a European problem, it's an American problem.

How much do you see this resonating with your colleagues in Senate right now?

Because you're in a bipartisan CODEL, right?

It's a great time for you all to actually get together and have real conversations.

- Yeah, and actually develop legislation and things we want to do together.

And that was happening in real time as we met with the Secretary General and with Zelensky.

I think you're gonna see bipartisan support for NATO countries paying their fair share.

And we've talked about that for a long time.

- [Ian] Oh, yeah.

- We've tried the carrot, we've tried the stick, we've tried all kinds of different things.

If Russia invading Ukraine doesn't get you and your country on the continent of Europe to spend the agreed upon amount on defense, we gotta have some tough conversations.

Italy, Spain, Portugal, they're closer to this than the United States of America, and yet they're not pulling their fair weight.

And so you're gonna to see bipartisan support for that.

I think there was also bipartisan support for understanding that this is an American issue.

It's a global issue.

Particularly if you care about sending a message to China, if you care about American leadership role in the world, if you care about bringing down our defense spending on other countries, then we got to resolve this in a way that's durable, that's serious, and doesn't prompt Putin or Xi Jinping to just start willy-nilly invading other countries.

- Now, I think a lotta the people that are watching this don't realize that this meeting, which you and I have participated in for years and years, is actually a unique opportunity where Democrats and Republicans from the House and Senate get together, travel together, and spend a couple of days together.

This has always been a spirit of bipartisanship.

The country's very polarized right now.

Do you still feel that same spirit of bipartisanship on this trip?

- I think it was, I felt positive, because you're getting on the plane with people, you're talking about the traffic, you're having normal, human interaction.

This is the McCain legacy delegation.

So, in the name of John McCain, Cindy McCain, his wife, is with us.

So it's hard to forget his legacy of just that the division should end at the water's edge, and we should approach the world in a bipartisan way.

There's no doubt about it, it's a stress time, but I think it's a good thing for us to have this time together.

And in those meetings, we're realizing we're not as far apart on a lot of Ukraine-Russia issues.

Now, my Republican colleagues have a special responsibility to speak up with the Trump administration, right?

The Republicans have the White House, the House, and the Senate.

They got all the keys here.

So if we're gonna do something important, they're gonna be the ones to have a closed door conversation.

But I think the humanizing aspect of Democrats and Republicans being together is vital right now.

- Now, you said that China's watching this very closely as well, not just Putin.

Do you think, coming out of this meeting so far, if you're the Chinese, do you feel like you have a world with more opportunity, or are you worried about the level of instability?

How do you think they would engage this?

- Well, certainly when they watch the feed of the Vice President's speech, and they see that he did not mention Russia or Ukraine once, they could easily say to themselves, "Great.

Trump said he was gonna end this no matter what.

Trump said, he said all kinds of glorious things about Vladimir Putin over the years.

Looks like we're on the downswing on this, and American resolve was short-lived."

Right?

- I completely understand that.

I want to throw another argument at you, see what you think.

Which is that you've got Trump, who is now pushing von der Leyen and others to talk about 3.54, even 5%.

- Yeah, that's good.

- She took that question.

Clearly the Russians and the Chinese, they don't want the Europeans spending that much more on defense and alliance.

You don't want the Americans being able to move a whole lotta troops and the material to Asia, to another front, which clearly is a shared priority of the Trump administration.

Do you think that plays too?

- Yes.

Look, I think it's good, and I'd have to say it's clear that President Trump's threats are what's moving NATO.

That and Putin is what is moving these countries who have not spent as much to spend more, including Germany, where we're sitting right now.

I think we all want the Europeans to do more, to be more active in their own defense, to volunteer earlier, to provide more funding and more support to places like Ukraine.

We all want that.

But I think it all depends on how you view the American role in the world.

Do you believe that United States of America has a unique leadership role, or are you okay with the Chinese having a leadership role, with a European nation having a... Are you okay with kind of a multipolar, like lots of leaders with lots of different agendas?

- Can the Americans make that decision, even if they wanted to?

- Since World War II, it hasn't just been our decision.

You ask any European here.

I used to walk into a meeting when I was at the Pentagon, an international meeting, and I'd say, "Okay, what are our ideas?"

Let's say we were fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and they'd say, "Well, you're the United States, tell us.

Tell us what we should be thinking about."

Right?

So, whether that's right or wrong, it is, and it has been since World War II.

And we make mistakes abroad.

We have every right to look at our spending abroad and curtail that if we think it's waste, fraud, abuse, whatever.

But I would rather have American leadership role in the world any day over a Chinese leadership role.

And I think that's what we're talking about.

It's a vacuum that would be left for others to fill.

- Elissa, last question for you.

Do you think the Americans are walking away from that leadership role right now?

- I think it's to be determined.

I think that there are many voices in this administration who want to get out, just call Ukraine a day, give Putin whatever he wants, and just take it off our plate.

I think there's also voices who are saying the long-term implications of that are dangerous for Americans, and we can't have that.

- Like your former colleague in the Senate, Marco Rubio, for example.

- Yep.

And so they're gonna have to play that out.

I know where I stand on that.

- Thank you so much, Elissa.

- You bet.

(dramatic music) - And now, what will Ukraine be after years of bloody and costly war?

One Ukrainian official says it could be a tech and defense powerhouse.

Here's GZERO's Tony Maciulis.

- At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine was already punching above its weight in technology.

(machine beeping) Having one of the most powerful IT hubs and digitized governments in the world, those tools became a battlefield advantage, one that Anna Gvozdiar, Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries, says could benefit all of Europe.

Technology has played a huge part in your defense, from drone technology to satellites.

Talk a little bit about the learnings there over the past few years.

- We have one battlefield on the front line, another is on the left.

We was very surprised with all the systems that appeared on the front line from Russia's side in 2022.

We knew about the developments, but we were surprised about electronic warfare they used against us and other systems like strike drones, et cetera.

So, Russia uses some technology against us, and we have to adapt very quickly.

There is no other place in the world where technology could develop so fast as they develop in Ukraine.

A lot of people are involved, like civilians, militaries.

You see how many new technologies we developed in Ukraine.

When it comes to drones, naval drones was first developed and successfully operated in Ukraine.

We managed to make Russian fleet go away from the Black Sea with cheap naval drones, with our technologies that we develop very quickly on the necessity to our armed forces.

I think this is very important.

So, my idea is that we could do more together.

Taking the lessons that we are learning every day would be the very successful cooperation for all of us because we are interested to make our partners stronger.

We understand we are not alone in this war, but we also understand that we are all in danger, and we have to take this as a fact.

- There's also been a steady drumbeat coming from the White House that Europe has to offer more to its allies in terms of defense.

Now, three years into this war, what kind of experience is Ukraine bringing to the table and what can Ukraine offer?

- Our every day is actually an experience.

No one has ever fight with Russia and allies.

That's the truth.

So no one in Europe, or in other parts of the world, know how to fight with this enemy.

We know.

Our lessons we're getting with a very, very high price, I think are priceless for our lives.

And we can learn how to scale fast manufacture, how to create new innovation fast, how to scale up some brigade units, successful ones, how to change the tactic very fast, because you've seen that we are much smaller than Russia in terms of people, in terms of personnel, in terms of funding, of course.

So, our lessons are priceless for Europe, and I think that Europe is learning how to help us.

I think it definitely could be faster, because the danger is actually very near.

- We heard here at the conference from Vice President JD Vance, who seemed to downplay any broader risk that Russia poses to Europe, saying, in fact, the bigger threat comes from within to democracy here in Europe.

Three years into this conflict, I'm sure you would disagree with that.

- I'm looking at this question from different perspective.

The main enemy for us is Russia.

So, we are less cautious in what we are saying and what we are doing, because our main priority, and I think that this is like what our president said, we have to defeat our enemy, and this is top priority.

We have to understand that, I think that the war started in 2014, and I think that all of us was very naive in 2014, when we was thinking that it will end in Donetsk and Luhansk region and in Crimea.

But it obviously had not stopped there.

So, we all have to understand that we have huge enemy which is not interested just in some regions of Ukraine.

So, we are fighting not for territory, we are fighting for values.

And I think that Europe, which used to certain lifestyle, has to understand that this is about protecting a democracy.

Ukraine is just the border of Europe next to Russia, and now Ukraine become a key to European security.

That's all we all have to understand, and all our eyes has now to be on the front line in Ukraine.

- We're just days away from the third anniversary of the beginning of this phase of the war.

Are you optimistic that Ukraine can win?

- Of course we are.

We are fighting for last 10 years.

I've lost a lot of my friends who was like the best people ever.

We don't have any choice, we just have to win.

So, we owe this victory to people who sacrificed their lives for us.

I think that we owe them a victory, and we try to have it as soon as possible.

- Anna Gvozdiar, thank you so much.

- Thank you so much.

(pensive beeping) - And now we move from high-stakes diplomacy to high-quality puppetry.

Europeans and NATO officials aren't the only world leaders with lots and lots of strings attached.

I've got your Puppet Regime.

- Hi.

Welcome back to new episode of "Putin' It Out There," world's most powerful AMA call-in show.

Today, first up callers is, let's see here, Wolodymyr from Little Odessa, Brooklyn.

Wolodymyr, you are live.

Put it out there.

First time, very, very long time.

I have a dispute with neighbor.

He is taking over my yard, cutting off my electricity, attacking me with drones.

- Typical South Brooklyn behavior these days.

Am I right?

- [Puppet] Right.

Well, neighborhood association has been helping me to push back, but now new head of association doesn't care.

He is just giving my yard to my neighbor directly, without consulting me.

- Well, you just had to get your neighborhood association involved.

Sounds like you are a little snitch, Wolodymyr.

- [Puppet] What?

- And putting up that fence was very, very aggressive.

- [Puppet] Aggressive?

The rules say I can have fence!

- Rules?

(laughs) Listen to this guy with rules.

Talking about rules.

My sweet, summer child, only rule in this part of town is that guy with biggest house makes the freaking rules!

♪ Puppet Regime ♪ - That's our show this week.

Come back next week and if you like what you've seen, or even if you don't, but you have your own demands for ending the war in Ukraine, why don't you check us out at gzeromedia.com?

(jazzy music) (jazzy music continues) (jazzy music continues) (jazzy music continues) (jazzy music continues) (pensive music) - [Announcer] Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Narrator] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains.

With a portfolio of logistics and real estate, and an end-to-end solutions platform, addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today, learn more at prologis.com.

- [Announcer] And by: Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

Cox is working to create an impact in areas like sustainable agriculture, clean tech, healthcare, and more.

Cox, a family of businesses.

Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and: (upbeat music) (dramatic music)