ASSUME SOME PEOPLE ARE MULTITASKING WHEN THEY WATCH THIS SHOW AND ONE OF THE OTHER ACTIVITIES YOU MIGHT BE UNDERTAKING TODAY, ONLINE SHOPPING.

AMERICAN SHOPPERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPEND CLOSE TO 12 AND A HALF BILLION DOLLARS ONLINE TODAY FOR SO-CALLED CYBER MONDAY.

BLACK FRIDAY SPENDING WAS ALSO STRONGER THAN EXPECTED UP 7 AND A HALF PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR.

THAT'S LIKELY EARLY FOR RETAILERS WHO ARE WORRIED INFLATION MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON HOLIDAY SPENDING.

JOINING US WITH THEIR INSIGHT ON HOW THE ECONOMY AND THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON ARE SHAPING UP.

OUR AND ALLY RETAIL STRATEGY CONSULTING WITH MCMILLAN DOOLITTLE, CONSULTING EDWARD STUART, PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF ECONOMICS AT NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY, OUR OLD FRIEND BRIGHT RIGHT NEXT DOOR AND MARTIN BLOCK, PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF MARKETING AT NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AND FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE RETAIL ANALYTICS COUNCIL.

REALLY GRATEFUL THAT ALL OF YOU ARE HERE TODAY.

SO MARTIN, HOW HAPPY ARE AFTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND?

SO FAR THEY SHOULD BE HAPPY.

>> BECAUSE I THINK DESPITE ALL OF THE REASONS FOR PEOPLE TO BE I MORE CONSUMERS ARE SAYING WE WANT TO GO OUT AND SHOP OVER THE.

FOUGHT FIVE-DAY A THANKSGIVING ONE.

THAT IS BECAUSE EVERYONE SORT OF IN THESE POLLS FEELS PESSIMISM ABOUT THE ECONOMY, ABOUT THE POWER OF THE DOLLAR AND YET.

>> NUMBERS ARE OKAY.

THERE'S A PARADOX.

WHEN PEOPLE ARE SAD.

THEY WILL SHOP.

TO MAKE THEMSELVES FEEL BETTER.

STUDIES OF DEPRESSION PEOPLE WHO ARE DEPRESSED, SHOT MORE CONSUME MORE MEDIA.

WE DID A BIG STUDY FOR RETAILER.

LOOKING AT THE TRAFFIC AND WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

AND WHEN THE PEOPLE SHOP WHEN IT'S CLOUDY.

>> SO CLOUDY WEEKEND, THE EQUALS A.

RETAIL SALES AND STEWART, YOU KNOW, THE BROADER ECONOMY, A GDP HAS BEEN UP.

CONSUMER SPENDING IS UP.

WE TALK ABOUT THIS SORT OF PARADOX.

INFLATION MAY BE CURBING A LITTLE BIT.

WHAT YOUR SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK SHORT TERM IS THAT INFLATION IS COMING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY THINGS, GROCERIES, GASOLINE PRICES ARE MUCH LOWER, NOT NECESSARILY GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT GOOD FOR THE CONSUMER.

>> EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE STILL STRONG.

SO AS MARTIN SAYS, PEOPLE MAY FEEL BAD, BUT THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY, THE REAL ECONOMY IS QUITE GOOD.

AND SO THEY HAVE THEY HAVE THE MEANS.

AND AND NOW THAT PRICES NOT GOING UP QUITE AS FAST AND SOME PRICES FOR LIKE TELEVISION SETS AND ENTERTAINMENT EQUIPMENT ACTUALLY FALLING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY >> YOU COVER RETAIL HERE.

SO WE DON'T SEE THE HEADLINES OF FOLKS CAMPING OUT IN FRONT OF STORES BUSTING DOWN THE WINDOW AND TEARING EVERYTHING UP TO GET ELECTRONICS AND T VISA BLACK FRIDAY.

WHAT USED TO BE?

>> BLACK FRIDAY IS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE YEARS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PANDEMIC.

IT'S REALLY TAKEN SHAPE IN NEW WAY WHERE YOU'RE REALLY BEEN DONE ONLINE AND OFFLINE.

NOBODY GOT TRAMPLED.

AS FAR AS I ON BLACK FRIDAY.

BUT MORE AND MORE CONSUMERS ARE SHIFTING IN WAYS THAT YOU'RE SPENDING.

I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU GUYS, BUT LAST WEEK I SCARFED DOWN MY TURKEY, PUT FOOTBALL ON AND THEN SCROLLED AND THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT BRICK AND MORTAR IS GOING AWAY THERE ARE STILL CERTAIN THINGS ASPECT OF THE EXPERIENCE AND SERVICE THAT CAN'T BE DUPLICATED ONLINE.

BUT IT'S REALLY ABOUT ADAPTING AS RETAILERS.

THE WAYS THAT CUSTOMERS WANT TO SHOP WHEN AND ONE THEY WANT TO SHOP.

>> SO SO, MARTIN, I MEAN, IS THERE STILL THIS SORT OF NOTION THAT THIS IS THE KICKOFF TO HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON OR DOES IT START EARLIER LIKE HALLOWEEN WITH STORES PUTTING UP ALL THEIR PROMOTIONS?

IS IT JUST SO JUST KIND OF MORE OF A ALL YOUR THING.

THERE'S >> AWFULLY STRONG, TRADITION THAT WOULD BE VERY HARD TO BREAK.

AND I THINK IS MAN THAT WAS SAYING ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS.

IS THAT BLACK FRIDAY IS TURNED INTO A FIVE-DAY EVENT.

AND IN DATA I PLAYED WITH ABOUT A 3RD OF PEOPLE SAY THEY WON'T SHOP OVER THE 5 DAYS.

A 3RD WILL SAY ONE DAY AND ANOTHER 3RD, 2 OR MORE.

SO, I MEAN, IT'S REALLY SPREAD SPREAD OUT LIKE TODAY, SO-CALLED CYBER MONDAY, ITS DOORS.

IT'S GOING TO BE A GOOD CYBER MONDAY IN A GOOD HARBINGER WHERE THE ECONOMY IS.

I THINK SO.

AND THERE ARE OTHER THINGS GOING ON IN THE POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMY.

PEOPLE AREN'T QUITE >> IS MEANT BUYING THINGS BUT THEY'RE BUYING EXPERIENCES.

SO RESTAURANTS ARE FULL.

HOTELS ARE FULL.

>> AIRPLANES ARE FULL.

SO PEOPLE ARE SHIFTING DURING THE PANDEMIC PEOPLE BUT THINGS OR HOUSES.

AND AFTER THE PANDEMIC, PEOPLE ARE BUYING SO YOU MIGHT NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH RETAIL SALES AT BIG BOX STORES.

BUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE RESTAURANT JOBS ARE OWN RESTAURANTS ARE GOING TO DO QUITE WELL.

>> AND THAT YOU MENTION THE BRICK AND MORTARS, YOU KNOW, STRUGGLING A LITTLE MORE.

YOU'RE ON YOUR PHONE INSTEAD OF GOING OUT THERE.

SO WHAT ARE THE BRICK AND MORTARS?

THE MALLS HAVE TO DO TO GET FOLKS OUT THERE?

>> I HIT THE NAIL ON THE YOU KNOW, YOU MENTIONED EXPERIENCES AND WE'RE SEEING MALLS REALLY TAKE SHAPE AND AND TAKE RETAIL EXPERIENCE BECOME MORE EXPERIENCIA.

ALL THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS THAT YOU CAN'T DUPLICATE ONLINE.

I SO YOU GET THE HELP RIGHT AWAY.

CAN TOUCH AND FEEL THE PRODUCT.

YOU'RE GETTING MORE POP-UP STORES HAVE TO GET CREATIVE WITH THEIR SPACES.

YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE DEPARTMENT STORE SPACES ARE EMPTY.

SO CONVERTING THAT TOO MULTIPLE SUBDIVISIONS, A RETAIL OR HOUSING OR GYMS, FOR EXAMPLE, DIFFERENT RACES GET PEOPLE OUT AND GIVE A REASON TO SPEND MORE TIME AND MORE SHARE OF THEIR WALLET IN PERSON.

>> MARTIN, HOW IS A LOCAL MALL DOING?

IS IT REALLY THAT IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF THE BROADER RETAIL ECONOMY THESE DAYS?

WELL.

>> I THINK STORE POINT OF VIEW, MALLS IN GENERAL ARE PROBABLY NOT BOOMING, BUT SOME ARE.

I WHAT THEM ALL HAS TO DO OR THE STORES IN THE MALL HAVE TO DO IS THEY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ENTERTAINMENT.

IT'S AN ASPECT SHOPPING AND FACILITATING SHOPPING IN GROUPS MAKING IT A SOCIAL EXPERIENCE.

>> AND STEWART, THE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT OF THE BROADER ECONOMIC NUMBERS A BIT AGO.

SO WITH INFLATION CURBING YOU, DO YOU THINK THE FED IS STARTING TO CONSIDER?

LOWERING INTEREST RATES?

YOU REALLY THINK THEY'RE THE NUMBER ONE QUESTION.

AND AND IT SAYS MORE HOPE THAN FORECAST.

BUT >> TO MY WAY OF THINKING AS A MACRO ECONOMIST THE INFLATION WE'VE HAD WASN'T CAUSED BY EASY MONEY AND BUDGET DEFICITS.

THE INFLATION WAS CAUSED BY CHIP SHORTAGES AND AND THE PANDEMIC.

AND SO RAISING INTEREST RATES WASN'T THE CURE.

BUT IT'S IT'S GOT TO SLOW THINGS DOWN LIKE HOUSING LIKE BIG TICKET ITEMS.

AND I HOPE THE FED THEY'RE STARTING TO BE A CHANGE OF OF THINKING AND THE CALMEST THAT THAT THE FED SHOULD BRING DOWN INTEREST RATES SOONER RATHER THAN WHAT I DID.

A STORY TALK TO AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, THE CHICAGO FED YOU REPRESENT WHO'S WHO'S ON THE MIKE COMMITTEE THAT DECIDES OR 80 SAYING LIKE WE STILL DON'T KNOW IF WE LANDED THIS PLANE YET.

SO DOESN'T SEEM TO ME THAT THERE THAT.

>> GOING TO TELL YOU THIS.

I THINK WON'T USE TERMINOLOGY.

JUST USE THE C Y A ITS ITS POLITICAL AD.

THEY'RE TRYING TO PROTECT THEIR REPUTATION AND NOT GET CALLED OUT.

IF THERE'S ANOTHER BOUT OF INFLATION.

BUT I'M HOPING THAT THAT THERE'S GOING TO BE MORE PRESSURE, POLITICAL PRESSURE AND ECONOMIC.

VERY QUESTION PRESSURE TO BRINGING INTEREST RATES DOWN.

AND I THINK THAT WILL BE REALLY GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN.

ALL RIGHT, AMANDA, WHAT OTHER SORT OF PRESSURES DO YOU SEE ON THAT MIGHT YOU KNOW, KEEPING SALES DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WANT THEM TO BE.

>> WELL, INTO A LITTLE WE ARE RETAIL STRATEGIST THAN YOU THINK AND THEN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS WORK WITH RETAILERS ALL TIME THEY WITH THE CHALLENGES OF HEAD WINDS THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS AS I MENTIONED, THERE'S NO INFLATIONARY COSTS.

WE'RE SEEING THEM SUBSIDE A BIT.

BUT THAT'S SOMETHING THAT'S BEEN COMPOUNDED OVER TIME.

LABOR IS MORE EXPENSIVE THAN EVER.

WE LOOK AT THE CONSUMER.

THEY DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE THE SAME AMOUNT OF SAVINGS AS THEY DID A COUPLE YEARS AGO.

ALL THE STUDENT DEBT LOANS ARE REALLY KICKING BACK.

AND SO A NUMBER DIFFERENT BOTH RETAILERS AS WELL AS CONSUMERS AND VIEWERS ARE EXPERIENCING.

AND SO IT'S A NEW ENVIRONMENT.

OF COURSE, THEY'RE WEATHERING THE STORM JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER COMPANY OUT THERE.

MARTIN, WHAT ABOUT IN THE CITY THINGS LIKE LABOR SHORTAGES OR, YOU KNOW, NEW NEW LAWS IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO THAT ARE MINIMUM WAGE, SICK TIME.

THINGS LIKE THAT.

>> WELL, IT CERTAINLY THINK THAT'S GOING TO PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON.

SECRET THING IS PRIVACY LAWS.

DON'T GET TALKED ABOUT ALL THAT MUCH.

BUT RETAILERS ARE NOW REPOSITORY IS LARGE DATABASES.

THE WILL NEED INCREASINGLY BE ABLE TO MINE AND USE.

AND HOW THOSE CAN BE MINED AND USED AND SHARED ARE BIG ISSUE.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING SO THINGS SORT OF LEGISLATIVE RIGHT NOW.

SO YEAH, THE HIGHEST IN WASHINGTON.

YES.

JUST HOW THESE DATABASES CAN BE USED.

PRIVACY LAWS.

YES, SOMETHING CONSUMERS MIGHT WANT TO BE VERY INTERESTED IN TO KNOW.

>> CAN HAPPEN WITH THAT?

A VOTE, A TRUSTING THOSE CONSUMERS WHO SHOP A LOT.

>> ARE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT IT.

AND THOSE CONSUMERS WHO DON'T.

WELL, IT'S LIKE YOU THAT PUT SOMETHING IN THE GOOGLE AND ALL OF A SUDDEN EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT YOU WANT TO BUY OR WHAT EVERYTHING ABOUT YOU ALREADY BECAUSE YOU SEE THOSE TARGETED >> RIGHT AWAY.

SO IT'S IT'S LIKE WE'VE BEEN LIVING WITH THIS FOR A WHILE ALREADY.

YES, AT STEWART THAT I KNOW YOU'RE FROM MORE KEYNESIAN STIGLITZ SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS.

WHAT ABOUT YOUR REACTION TO YOU KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING?

THE CITY OF CHICAGO, RAISE AND LIKE THIS NEW PAID SICK LEAVE A MANDATE FOR BUSINESS IN CHICAGO.

A LOT OF PRO BUSINESS GROUPS SAY.

>> CHICAGO'S ECONOMY IS GOING TO SUFFER BECAUSE OF WELL, OBVIOUSLY, TO BE REAL ECONOMISTS, YOU SAY ON THIS HAND AND ON THE OTHER HAND, BUT OBVIOUSLY RAISES IN MINIMUM WAGES, GIVE PEOPLE MORE MONEY TO SPEND AND >> THE PROFITS OF BUSINESSES IN THE U.S. ECONOMY HAVE BEEN GOING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.

SO >> THIS IS KIND OF A LITTLE REBALANCING TO TAKE MONEY OUT OF THE HANDS OF VERY, VERY WEALTHY PEOPLE AND PUT IT IN THE HANDS OF WORKING PEOPLE.

AND FOR RETAILERS.

YOU WANT WORKING PEOPLE TO HAVE MONEY BECAUSE MIDDLE INCOME AND POOR PEOPLE SPEND MONEY.

RICH PEOPLE SAVE MONEY.

SO IF YOU'RE IN RETAIL, YOU WANT WORKERS AND HOUSEHOLDS TO HAVE MORE INCOME.

AND AS WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE HOLIDAY SEASON, THE REST OF THE YEAR TO MIDDLE INCOME FOLKS HAVE ENOUGH.

DISPOSAL INCOME TO TO GO OUT AND SPEND IT.

>> IF YOU LOOK THE SALES NUMBERS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS, WOULD SAY JUST THAT, LIKE AS MARTIN HAD MENTIONED, IN SPITE OF SOME OF THE LOOMING UNCERTAINTY, PEOPLE ARE USING THAT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SPEND ON GIFTS TO TO CREATE MEMORABLE MOMENTS FOR THE FAMILY.

EVEN AMID UNCERTAINTY.

ALL RIGHT.

WELL, POSITIVES.

>> HOLIDAY SEASON SO FAR.

HOPE YOU ALL HAD A HAPPY