The race for New Jersey's Seventh Congressional District seat is neck and neck, according to a new Monmouth University poll out today, which shows extremely close margins between incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr and his Democratic challenger, Sue Altman.

Overall, it finds voters are more likely to see Kaine's political views as more in step with the districts than Altmans, especially when it comes to the economy, crime and immigration.

46% of registered voters in the district will definitely or probably vote for Kaine, according to the survey, while 44% will definitely or probably vote for Altman, who, by the way, has far outraised Kean during the last quarter.

But has less money in the bank.

That's because the national Republican Party is spending heavily in the district on his behalf, and that's not the case for Democrats.

The question is, will it make a difference?

Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray joins us now.

Patrick, good to talk to you.

Important to note, this is the only independent poll on this district.

So these numbers showing just how tight of a race this is.

I mean, it's pretty stark when you look at it.

The fact that either one of them could potentially take this.

Yeah.

I mean, what we're looking at is a race where there are a lot of factors at play that could, push this in either direction.

That's one of the things that we try to show in our polling at Monmouth is not just, you know, pick this head to head horse race and what's likely voter model, but why things are happening the way they are and where they could go.

So there's, the question of which voters will actually show up.

Different types of electorates could give, you know, a slight advantage to Kean a slight advantage to him.

And, you know, how much will the third party candidates in this race get?

That could hurt Kane a little bit more.

And also, there's still an undecided vote out there and there's undecided vote on the House level, but not at the presidential level, which means there's presidential voters in this, district who are definitely going out to vote but haven't made up their mind about the House yet, and that there are enough of them that could swing that vote either way, depending on whether they stick straight party or they split their ticket.

Yeah, or split their ticket is what I was thinking of.

I mean, the poll it finds that Altman leads in some key areas, particularly with, white educated females, white females who have a college education, rather, and on the issue of abortion.

But Kean seems to have the edge, according to the poll, on some other pretty big fundamentals, the economy being one of them.

I mean, could either of those eke out a win?

I mean, do these issues matter more or less to the voters in this district?

Yeah, I mean, that's really fascinating because while Kean has a bit of an edge on a lot of the issues that voters tell us are important to them, Sue Altman has a huge advantage on the issue of abortion.

So the real question is how many voters are using that as one of their top issues in deciding how to vote in this election?

And this district seven district has an extremely high number of white college educated voters.

It's above average among all 435 districts in the country for that demographic.

And while swamp men is doing better among women, and, Tom Kean is doing better among men among all different types of groups, whether they have a college degree or not, whether they're white or not, it's among that white, college educated voter that we see the biggest gender gap.

So for women, abortion freedoms, those kinds of things are really the driving factor.

And so Altman is doing really well.

But for men, they're telling us that their top issue is economic growth and jobs.

And for that they're preferring Tom Cain.

So the real question is, can, you know, can Tom Kean solidify that?

Can Sue Altman break into that a little bit?

Some of it is simply shifting.

Which issues are more important may be the name of the game for winning this election.

Yeah.

And what's motivating folks.

So I mean as you wrote in these last couple of weeks, there's potential here to make up some ground.

And yet from what we are seeing, at least in the latest federal filings, national Democrats are not spending in this district.

Sue Altman has proved to be a pretty darn good fundraiser.

But national Republicans are pouring more money in for for the race for Kean giving him an advantage, at least in his campaign coffers.

Yeah, just think about that.

I mean, the fact that the Republicans are pouring in all this money, the Democrats aren't, and it's a tight race, suggests that the Democrats are missing an opportunity here.

And it's not the first time.

I mean, Democrats kind of national Democrats have a history of of not paying enough attention to their base in places where they need them, but also missing opportunities where they could score a win that they weren't expecting one.

I I'm thinking like two years ago, the Wisconsin Senate race, for example, was one that they could have won and they wouldn't have to worry as much about the Senate this year.

This looks like a race where this could be one of those seats that could help them pick up the, the House control, but, they're not spending any any effort there.

Yeah, very interesting stuff.

Pat Murray, good to check in with you as always.

We'll be talking as the election gets closer.

My pleasure.

Brianna.