JUDY WOODRUFF: Good evening.

I'm Judy Woodruff.

On the "NewsHour" tonight: what could have been.

A new study suggests the U.S. might have avoided tens of thousands of deaths if social distancing policies happened a few weeks earlier.

Then,: fallout.

The Trump administration plans to withdraw from another arms control treaty with Russia.

Plus: retail in crisis.

With the economy in freefall and nearly 40 million Americans filing for unemployment, the already struggling retail sector faces a grim future.

NEIL SAUNDERS, Managing Director, GlobalData Retail: Confidence takes a moment to destroy.

It can take many, many months to come back.

But then, even among those who may want to go out and shop and miss that activity, a lot of them don't have the means to do so.

JUDY WOODRUFF: All that and more on tonight's "PBS NewsHour."

(BREAK) JUDY WOODRUFF: The COVID-19 pandemic has reached yet another grim milestone, as the number of confirmed cases worldwide surpassed the five million mark.

That comes as the U.S. Labor Department announced its own staggering statistic -- 38.6 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past nine weeks.

Yamiche Alcindor begins our coverage.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: As businesses across the country prepare for gradual reopenings, the number of Americans filing for unemployment appears to be leveling off.

The Labor Department said 2.4 million Americans filed claims this past week.

That is a drastic drop from the surge seen late in March.

But those numbers are still sky-high.

And the toll COVID-19 is having on the economy overall remains vast.

More than 38 million workers sought jobless benefits in the past nine weeks.

Today, before he left for a trip to Michigan, President Trump said the country would soon be on the path to recovery.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: The numbers are going to be very good into the future.

We're going to be very good starting with our transition period, which will be probably June -- June, July.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: He was on the defensive after the release of a Columbia University model that estimated nearly 36,000 deaths could have been prevented had social distancing policies been enforced one week early.

DONALD TRUMP: I was way early.

Columbia is an institution that's very liberal.

It's a - - I think it's just a political hit job, you want to know the truth.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Researchers at Columbia University said, if lockdowns had been imposed just two weeks earlier, 83 percent of the nation's deaths could have been avoided.

But, at that time, a number of leaders, including those at the country's epicenter of the crisis, stood back.

DONALD TRUMP: Relax.

We're doing great.

It all will pass.

BILL DE BLASIO (D), Mayor of New York: We want people still to go on about their lives.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: As the virus quietly subsumed their cities.

Today, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he regrets not having more information on the virus.

BILL DE BLASIO: I wish we had known so much more in January, February, beginning of March.

I wish we had the testing that would have told us what was going on.

I mean, right now, we're not sure when this disease started to be present in the city.

It -- we thought it was March, and now more and more, it looks like it was February or even late January.

And we just didn't have testing to be able to give us the full picture.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Dr. Ashish Jha is the director at the Harvard Global Health Institute.

He said no model will be completely right, but there is no doubt delays and inaction had a significant impact.

DR. ASHISH JHA, Director, Harvard Global Health Institute: This is the entire point of exponential growth in outbreaks like this.

If you think of a doubling time of five days, it means that, by delaying by 10 days, you have four times the number of cases, four times the number of deaths.

Or if we had closed 10 days earlier, we would have a quarter of the deaths that we ended up having.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Meanwhile, President Trump traveled to the city of Ypsilanti, some 40 miles outside Detroit.

There, he met with African-American leaders from the area.

Black people and people of color remain disproportionately impacted by the coronavirus.

DONALD TRUMP: African-American communities have been hit very hard, including in Detroit.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: He also toured a Ford motor plant where workers are now producing ventilators in response to the virus.

He wore a mask during a private viewing of some vehicles, but he later removed it during the remainder of the visit.

Those containment efforts have entirely reshaped the country.

Today, the Transportation Security Administration released new procedures for airport screenings.

The agency is urging travelers to wear face masks and to scan their own boarding passes.

People are also urged to keep carry-on food items in clear plastic bags to prevent agents from handling their belongings.

Control measures like these are playing out across the globe, as the tally of infections surpass five million.

And countries with fragile health systems are bearing the brunt.

By the weekend, cases across the continent of Africa could top 100,000.

The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned, the continent needs to be testing about 10 times the number of people already tested.

For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Yamiche Alcindor.

JUDY WOODRUFF: It's a question that provided a haunting backdrop to this day's news: How many fewer deaths might there have been if social distancing had started more widely earlier in March?

As we heard in Yamiche's report, a group of statisticians estimate there might have been 36,000 fewer deaths had dramatic steps been taken sooner.

But this estimate is based on a computer model.

And the models have their limitations.

Miles O'Brien has been covering the work that goes into all this, as he did last night.

And he joins us again tonight.

So, Miles, you have been looking at this new estimate.

What did you find about how they came to this conclusion?

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, Judy, it's incredibly complicated stuff to try to model a pandemic that's moving exponentially and judging that against the human response to it.

The basic formula is, they look at who's susceptible, who's exposed, who's infected, and who's recovering.

And then they measure that against mobility data, cell phone mobility data, to get a sense of how well social distancing and sheltering in place is taking hold.

With those numbers and correlations based on what's actually happened here in the United States, they roll back the clock and assume that those mobile patterns that were in place when the social restrictions were being adhered to more in this country were instituted earlier, and that's where you get those numbers.

If they had started two weeks prior, there would have been 54,000 fewer deaths, 54,000.

Now, that's not too surprising when you talk about the exponential spread of a virus that is novel, but it does give some specific numbers to the particular problem.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, these are eye-popping numbers, Miles.

But, as you were telling us, there are caveats here.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, what's really important to remember is, if you to back two weeks prior to that date, first part of March, there were only eight deaths in the entire United States associated with COVID-19.

So, getting people to abide by strict social distancing, sheltering-in-place rules when there are only eight deaths total would probably not work very well.

After all, people have to feel compelled to do things.

And so the models don't capture that particular aspect of it, what -- the human nature component.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes, it's -- so much of it, of course, is about the timing.

And is it possible to know that these deaths were really preventable?

MILES O'BRIEN: Yes, that's an interesting point, because we talk about social distancing, and we talk about sheltering in place as a way to keep the health care system from overflowing, which would, of course, create more deaths, because people can't get care.

But this particular paper, looking at these numbers, doesn't account for that.

It doesn't sort out between those deaths and deaths that, frankly, might be inevitable, because it is, after all, a novel coronavirus, and we don't have a vaccine.

But here's an important point.

If you take a look at using as a template South Korea, where they instituted early action, they did widespread testing, contact tracing, and the numbers have diminished dramatically -- as a matter of fact, they're getting back to work.

Professor Jeffrey Shaman is the lead author.

He's at Columbia University.

He elaborated on that a little bit further.

JEFFREY SHAMAN, Columbia University: I don't think it's inevitable that everybody will get infected.

If we were really to hold this virus in check, if we were reduce it analogously in the United States, so that, instead of 20,000 new cases each day, we only had 200 each day, we would be in a similar position, where we probably could hold this thing in check for a considerable amount of time, while giving ourselves the opportunity to develop therapeutics and an effective vaccine.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Miles, how useful is what the doctor saying, is this information?

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, it's not very useful.

We spend all our time trying to point fingers.

I think there's plenty of blame to go around right now.

I think the important point here is, we have settled into this idea that it's a binary, either we're shut down and at home and not going out, or we're at work.

But there's a lot of in between that we can think about, including more usage of masks, much more testing and contact tracing.

And then, if you get to a point where there is a small outbreak, you can identify it much more quickly, and you can kind of put a ring around it and stop it from becoming that wildfire-type growth that we see with an exponential pandemic.

So, there is some -- there are lessons here, if we are willing to listen.

I'm afraid, if we don't listen, we're in for another surge pretty soon.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Still some ambiguity, but you are right, something we have to pay attention to.

Miles O'Brien, we thank you, as always.

MILES O'BRIEN: You're welcome, Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF: In the day's other news: More than 80 people have died after a powerful cyclone swept through coastal India and Bangladesh.

The storm packed winds of up to 118 miles an hour when it roared ashore Wednesday.

In Kolkata today, cars maneuvered through flooded streets, as rescue crews cleared away debris.

About 10 million people in Bangladesh remain without power.

China is considering a new security bill that could restrict opposition activity in Hong Kong.

That comes after months of pro-democracy protests in the semiautonomous territory.

China's National People's Congress will begin debating the legislation tomorrow.

Activists fear the move is another assault on the city's liberties.

The Trump administration announced that it is pulling out of the decades-old Open Skies Treaty.

The 30-plus-nation agreement aimed to promote trust and avert conflict by allowing countries to conduct unarmed observation flights over each other's territory.

President Trump said that the U.S. wants out, because Russia is violating the pact.

But he's left open the possibility of a new deal.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: Russia and us have developed very good relationship.

As you know, we worked on the oil problem together.

I think we have a very good relationship with Russia.

But Russia didn't adhere to the treaty.

So, until they adhere, we will pull out.

But there's a very good chance we will make a new agreement or do something to put that agreement back together.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Russia's Foreign Ministry warned, the U.S. withdrawal will impact the interests of all the treaty's participants.

We will take a closer look at the decision later in the program.

Floodwaters that breached two Central Michigan dams began to slowly recede today in some communities, after 11,000 people were forced to evacuate.

Strong currents tore through parts of homes along the riverbanks.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer today described the destruction.

GOV.

GRETCHEN WHITMER (D-MI): And I can tell you, I have used this phrase many times over the last 10 weeks, but this is unlike anything we have seen before.

The damage is truly devastating to see how high the water levels are, to see roofs barely visible in parts of Midland.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Whitmer said the state will investigate the dam's operators and take legal action if necessary.

In the meantime, President Trump approved federal assistance to help Michigan's recovery efforts.

The Senate today confirmed Congressman John Ratcliffe to be the next director of national intelligence.

The vote was 49-44, along party lines.

The Texas Republican has been a staunch defender of President Trump, but pledged in his confirmation hearing to be independent.

He will replace the acting director, Richard Grenell.

President Trump's longtime personal lawyer Michael Cohen was released from a federal prison in New York today because of the pandemic.

He arrived at his Manhattan apartment wearing a face mask to serve the rest of his sentence at home.

Cohen had been behind bars since last May for tax charges, fraud and lying to Congress.

He had been scheduled to remain there until November of 2021.

His release is part of a widespread effort to slow the virus spread in prisons.

Georgia's Bureau of Investigation has arrested the man who video recorded the fatal shooting of a black man, Ahmaud Arbery, back in February.

William "Roddie" Bryan Jr. was taken into custody on a felony murder charge.

The two main suspects in Arbery's killing, a white father and son, Gregory and Travis McMichael, were arrested earlier this month.

In the president's presidential campaign, there is word that the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden invited both of New Hampshire's Democratic senators for initial interviews to be considered for his vice presidential running mate.

Maggie Hassan agreed to take part, but Jeanne Shaheen reportedly declined the invitation.

Former Vice President Biden has pledged to pick a woman as his running mate.

Actress Lori Loughlin and her husband have agreed to plead guilty in a college admissions bribery scandal after a year spent claiming they were innocent.

Loughlin will serve two months behind bars for conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud.

Her husband will serve five months.

Prosecutors will in turn dismiss charges of money laundering and federal programs bribery.

The couple is accused of paying $500,000 in bribes to get their daughters into the University of Southern California.

And today's unemployment report pushed stocks lower on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost more than 101 points to close at 24474.

The Nasdaq fell 91 points, and the S&P 500 slipped 23.

Still to come on the "NewsHour": Virginia Governor Ralph Northam discusses efforts to reopen his state; the Trump administration plans to withdraw from a critical arms control treaty; with the economy in freefall, the struggling retail sector faces a grim future; plus, much more.

The Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, which includes parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia, is still under lockdown.

And it is one of three areas in the country where cases of the coronavirus are plateauing, instead of declining.

Virginia's Governor Ralph Northam OK'ed the phased reopening of most of the state last week.

He's also the only sitting governor who is also a medical doctor.

And he joins us now from Richmond.

Governor Northam, thank you very much for talking with us today.

You have begun to open up the state of Virginia, like so many other states.

But we also learned today that Virginia had, I guess, the highest number of new cases reported since the pandemic began.

How do you know that you're not moving too fast?

GOV.

RALPH NORTHAM (D-VA): Well, Judy, first of all, thank you so much for having me on today, and I hope that you and your viewers are healthy and safe.

We have been fighting this pandemic for a little bit over two months now.

Our first case was on March the 7th.

And we have followed the CDC guidelines that were outlined.

And those were looking at the percent positivity, the hospital capacity that we have, the amount of PPE, the amount of testing.

And most of Virginia, Judy, a week ago was ready to move into phase one, following those criteria.

Obviously, Northern Virginia, which is neighboring with Maryland and Washington, D.C., still have high numbers.

We had discussions with their leadership and decided that we would delay entering phase one for two weeks.

And, to your point, we did have a high number of positive tests today.

The great majority of them are up in Northern Virginia.

So, we're monitoring that very closely, and, again, we're encouraging people in the Northern Virginia area to just stay home until these numbers go down a bit.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And a separate question, Governor, which has to do with what's happening in the D.C. area.

And that is, we see that, as these areas open up in the less populated parts of the country, as in rural Virginia, Southern Virginia, people from the urban areas are going out to these parts of the state and of the country.

Is Virginia prepared for what could happen as people move around the state more?

GOV.

RALPH NORTHAM: Well, we're monitoring that very closely.

And we have encouraged individuals that live in Northern Virginia to please stay home.

We have had outbreaks in other parts of the state, as you know, Judy.

Over on the Eastern Shore, where I'm there, we have had outbreaks at our meat processing plants.

Nursing homes have been affected by this.

So, this virus doesn't know boundaries of counties and states.

And we all have to just really remain vigilant, and keep our hygiene, the washing of our hands, wearing face protection, and keep that social distancing.

We know that those things work.

And Virginians overall have been very good about following those guidelines.

JUDY WOODRUFF: How prepared, though, would you say Virginia is?

Because isn't -- you have to factor in a certain amount of unpredictability, don't you?

GOV.

RALPH NORTHAM: Absolutely.

That's why they call this a novel virus.

There are so many things we don't know.

We don't know whether it's seasonal.

We don't have a vaccination.

There's no treatment for the virus.

So, we are monitoring our numbers very closely.

And we have the ability now - - and it's getting better every day, Judy - - to do testing.

We're hiring a number of individuals to do tracing.

We have the PPE that we have that's necessary in Virginia.

So, each day is better.

But, you know, one of the points I would make, Judy, we have been fighting this biological war for over two months now, and we started with no supplies.

And being an Army doctor, as I was, we have had our hands tied.

And so we have worked very hard to accumulate more PPE.

That's going well.

And our testing capabilities, yesterday, we tested over 10,000 individuals in Virginia.

So, each day is better.

Obviously, we're working to make it better every day.

And we want Virginians to be safe.

And as we move into these phases, we will do it responsibly.

JUDY WOODRUFF: A different subject, Governor, and that has to do with voting, and mail-in voting.

You reported yesterday that, in local elections in Virginia this week, there was a much higher number of people, I think you said you reported 55,000 Virginians voted in these local elections with mail-in ballots, much more than in the last election four years ago.

You're encouraging Virginians to mail in their votes for the June primary.

But we know that President Trump, in the last few days and again today, is saying that mail-in voting, in his words, leads to fraud.

He said, in so many words, it's illegal.

He said, it's going to lead to total election fraud.

What do you say to that?

And do you see this as an effort to discourage voting in November on the part of Democrats?

GOV.

RALPH NORTHAM: Well, Judy, nobody should have to choose between their health and casting a ballot.

And this is not the time to play politics.

And so much of what our president has done is aspirational.

There have been so many mixed messages that have come out of Washington, and it's really why we're in somewhat of the predicament that we're in now.

But we need to make sure that we can allow individuals to cast their ballot and that they can do it safely.

So, you know, we don't know what this virus is going to do over the next weeks and months, but, certainly, if, in November, the virus is still out there, and people are putting their lives at risk, poll workers are putting their lives at risk, then we need to find another means of voting to make sure that everybody's voice is heard and that we can elect a president in November.

JUDY WOODRUFF: When the president claims that this leads to, in his words, total election fraud, how do you respond to that?

GOV.

RALPH NORTHAM: Well, it's baseless, is what it is.

And, again, we have shown -- we showed it a couple days ago -- that, you know, it's a way that people can vote, and it's a way that they can protect their health.

So, again, we need to be flexible as we move forward.

And I hope that November the 3rd, which we have made a holiday in Virginia -- we got rid of Lee-Davis -- or Lee-Jackson holiday, as you know.

We hope that people will go to be able to vote at the polls and do it safely.

But, if they can't, we have got to find other means to do that.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Governor Ralph Northam of Virginia, thank you very much, Governor.

GOV.

RALPH NORTHAM: Thank you so much, Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF: The president signaled today that he would begin the process of withdrawing from a key post-Cold War treaty with Russia and more than 30 other nations.

Nick Schifrin has that.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Judy, the 1992 Open Skies Treaty was built amid the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies.

It was designed to allow regulated overflights of Russia, the U.S., and Europe by Russian and American planes to ensure no military action was in the process of being launched below.

But the administration says the Russians have routinely violated the pact, and started a six-month clock today.

At the same time, the U.S. is trying to include China in new conversations about New START, the nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia.

And for more, I'm joined by Marshall Billingslea, the newly appointed presidential envoy for arms control.

Ambassador Billingslea, welcome to the "NewsHour."

Thank you very much.

Let's just start with a straightforward question.

Why is the Trump administration withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty?

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA, Special Presidential Envoy For Arms Control: Well, thanks for that question, Nick.

And I'll tell you, there are four specific reasons that we're exercising our right under the treaty to withdraw.

The first is that Russia, regrettably, has engaged in a systemic pattern of arms control treaty violations.

They have basically destroyed the entire conventional arms control framework in Europe, not just with the Open Skies Treaty, but with the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe treaty and many other destabilizing behaviors.

Secondly, Russia is misusing the treaty for purposes that it really was never intended for.

As our director of national intelligence said today, and as the head of our counterintelligence executive has said, Russia was actually abusing the treaty to target our critical infrastructure.

On top of that, reason number three is that Russia was using the treaty to advance its malign propaganda activities around the world.

They were trying to get countries to de facto recognize their illegal annexation effort in Crimea and their occupation of Georgia.

These are unacceptable behaviors.

And then, finally, as we reviewed the treaty, the honest answer is that technology has passed by the world of wet film and antiquated aircraft.

You can download commercial imagery today in a matter of seconds that really meets the original intent of confidence-building measures in Europe.

So, we will -- we will work with our allies on this, but Russia's behavior has been really regrettable.

NICK SCHIFRIN: All right, so, obviously, the main argument is that Russia has not been complying with this treaty.

Yes, Russia has set constraints, according to the experts that I'm speaking to, and also really blocked some of the conversations about some of those constraints, as the U.S. has seen it.

But the Trump administration has been making progress.

Russia recently allowed an overflight in Kaliningrad, the enclave in Eastern Europe.

Why withdraw from the treaty, rather than continue that progress the Trump administration's been making?

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA: Well, look, I mean, let's face it.

This is a fundamental principle at stake here.

We expect and the president expects that other countries, other partners in these treaty arrangements abide by their contractual obligations.

When they sign up to a treaty, you abide by it.

You deliver.

When you break the rules, when you cheat -- and, by the way, this is not just Open Skies, like I said.

I mean, this is a pattern of Russian violation of arms control agreements across the board.

We can't forget that, just a few months ago, maybe a year ago, Russia blew up the INF Treaty by secretly developing a ground-launched cruise missile nuclear-tipped that was explicitly prohibited by that treaty and deploying battalions of these things to target NATO forces.

So, we're unfortunately dealing with an unreliable partner here.

And there have to be consequences, starting with the fact that, if they're going to cheat, we have the right to go ahead and withdraw from the treaty.

And that's what the president has decided to do.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Of course Russia uses everything they can to justify some of the propaganda and bad behavior, but Open Skies had a couple of venues in order to block that.

Georgia, for example, used Open Skies to complain about what Russia was doing on its borders.

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA: Right.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And when Russia rammed Ukrainian ships and kidnapped Ukrainian sailors back into Russia, NATO used Open Skies in order to fly over Russian territory to try and make a point.

So, why give up that tool?

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA: Well, the tool hasn't been abandoned.

The treaty will continue to operate, and our NATO allies will continue to exercise their treaty rights as they see fit.

It's going to be important that, going forward, the other countries that remain inside the Open Skies Treaty continue to hold the Russians to account.

And, of course, we're going to work with our NATO allies because we have plenty of facilities and forces still based in Europe.

NICK SCHIFRIN: The future of strategic nuclear arms control, obviously, we need to move on to talking about New START, which expires earlier next year.

You are announcing -- you are announcing today that you and your Russian colleague will sit down and talk about the extension of New START.

You said you expect China to be there.

It took 24 years for the Soviet Union to agree to on-site inspections.

Why don't do you think you can get that done or something similar with the Chinese in the next seven months?

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA: Well, look, it is true that we have built up a systematic way of engaging between the United States and Soviet Union, now the United States and Russia, that has provided some real advantages.

We have a risk reduction center and a hot line, ways to really reduce the risk of inadvertent nuclear exchange.

And we need to get that dynamic going with the Chinese as well.

If they really do want to be treated as a great power, which I think they do, then they're going to need to be prepared to show up and behave like a great power, negotiate with United States in Russia, and agree to the kind of verification and transparency measures that we need, given that we know that China is engaged in a secretive and unconstrained nuclear weapons buildup.

NICK SCHIFRIN: How can you get that done in the next six to seven months, before New START expires?

At what point is some arms control better than none -- no arms control?

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA: The New START treaty doesn't have the kind of verification measures we once had with the Russians.

And we want to restore that.

We want to restore it, and we want to extend it to include the Chinese.

This is something that the Russians themselves have recognized in the past.

In fact, my counterpart, the deputy foreign minister, Minister Ryabkov, himself, right after New START was adopted, made clear that the next arms control agreement needed to be multilateral.

I agree with him.

And we're going to work together.

And I have made clear to him that I do expect Russia to help bring China to the negotiating table.

So, I'm optimistic.

And I do reassure your viewers that the president is committed to the future of nuclear arms control.

But he wants a good deal for the American people.

NICK SCHIFRIN: We will have to leave it there.

Ambassador Marshall Billingslea, thank you very much.

MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA: Thanks, Nick.

Good to see you.

JUDY WOODRUFF: For more than two months, the toll of unemployment in the U.S. has grown each week.

Many economists and experts believe some of these lost jobs will not come back any time soon.

That is of particular concern in the retail sector.

Today, Macy's said that sales were down 45 percent.

Economics correspondent Paul Solman reports on retail's plunge for our series Making Sense.

JANET DEE, Furloughed Retail Worker: They shut everything down, and we were all furloughed.

PAUL SOLMAN: Over two million Americans have now lost their jobs in retail.

Like Janet Dee, 43 years with Macy's in New York.

JANET DEE: This is going to be devastating to so many people.

PAUL SOLMAN: Violet Moya lost her job at a Houston Sephora six weeks ago.

And still hasn't received unemployment benefits.

VIOLET MOYA, Laid-Off Retail Worker: I did apply for food stamps.

It did, thankfully, went through, thankfully, because I didn't know how was I was going to buy food.

PAUL SOLMAN: Stores shed jobs, of course, as sales plunged, a record 16.4 percent down from March to April, a bloodbath for the economy, since retail accounts for about half of all consumer spending, which in turn drives some 70 percent of economic activity.

NEIL SAUNDERS, Managing Director, GlobalData Retail: When we first entered lockdown, there was a hope that this would be very quick, it would be a kind of V-shaped recovery.

I think most retailers now no longer hold on to that hope.

PAUL SOLMAN: Neil Saunders monitors the sector for GlobalData Retail.

NEIL SAUNDERS: You have still got a lot of economic distress, massive unemployment, a lot of people very uncertain about the future.

It probably won't be 2021 before we get back to any semblance of normality in retail.

PAUL SOLMAN: In acute pain, clothing stores, where sales have tumbled nearly 80 percent.

Already struggling department stores are down about 30 percent.

JANET DEE: It's just a scary situation.

PAUL SOLMAN: Sales associate Janet Dee was furloughed from a Macy's on Long Island after it closed in March.

JANET DEE: Are the cutbacks like this going to be for one year, two years, three years?

You don't know.

So it's unnerving.

PAUL SOLMAN: Especially for Dee, as a union rep. JANET DEE: Our contract is up this month.

So we have tried to get the company to agree to a one-year extension on to the current contract.

But they did not want to go for that.

So, then we asked for a six-month extension, but they didn't want to go for that either.

PAUL SOLMAN: Workers like Dee have far less bargaining power than they did just months ago, says Saunders.

NEIL SAUNDERS: Before this crisis, we had very full employment.

You had to pay attractive salaries, good bonuses to get those people to work for you.

The problem now is that that situation has reversed.

PAUL SOLMAN: Violet Moya has been living off her stimulus check, still waiting for those unemployment benefits, looking, unsuccessfully, for work.

VIOLET MOYA: I applied at Target.

I applied at H-E-B and Aldi's.

I applied at what I knew would be open.

So, I even tried to DoorDash, but I only have one vehicle, and my brother already does DoorDash.

The other day was so bad that he made like $3 in a day.

And he was like, oh, my goodness.

PAUL SOLMAN: You mean $3 an hour?

VIOLET MOYA: No, a day, because there's thousands of other people on the app that joined because of what happened, because of the pandemic.

There's no jobs.

So a lot of people are doing those jobs now.

PAUL SOLMAN: The pandemic has speeded the shift to online, predicted to jump from 15 percent of all retail to fully a quarter, good for virtual stores, disastrous for ones you can walk into, many of which have now gone under.

But in the case of two of the biggest names, J.

Crew and Neiman Marcus, an added problem was the way they'd been financed, by something called private equity.

ROSEMARY BATT, Cornell University: Ten out of the 14 bankruptcies in retail in recent years have been private equity-owned companies.

So we expected them to be the first to go down when the COVID-19 crisis hit.

PAUL SOLMAN: Cornell professor Rosemary Batt studies the private equity industry.

ROSEMARY BATT: Their financial model makes it such that, if there's any disturbance at all, they're likely to go under.

PAUL SOLMAN: Now, private equity firms are investment partnerships that buy companies, including retailers that have supposedly steady cash flows.

NEIL SAUNDERS: They buy them with debt, and that debt gets put onto the balance sheet of the retailer they're buying.

So, this leaves the retailer with an enormous debt pile that they then have to service.

PAUL SOLMAN: As a result, it's harder for retailers to both pay their debts and stay current to compete with behemoths like Amazon and Walmart.

ROSEMARY BATT: They don't have the funds to invest in upgrading their stores and their merchandise and developing their online capacities in the ways that others have.

ANN MARIE REINHART, Furloughed Retail Worker: I watched all those changes happen when they had the leveraged buyout.

PAUL SOLMAN: After almost three decades at Toys 'R' Us, Ann Marie Reinhart was laid off two years ago, when the company went bankrupt, after a private equity takeover.

ANN MARIE REINHART: At first, I did not understand the process, that you could buy a company for $6 billion, put $1 billion down, and then force the company to pay the balance of that loan.

But with private equity firms, they extract all the profits, so that no other company can really get out from under that debt.

PAUL SOLMAN: In March, Reinhart was furloughed from Belk, the North Carolina-based retail chain, where she'd next taken a job.

ANN MARIE REINHART: I was under the impression that they were family-owned.

And then someone said, yes, well, ever since they were bought us out, and I was like, what?

And they said, yes, that we were sold to a private equity firm.

To me, it was deja vu working at Toys 'R' Us, is, you know, they started, you know, cutting supplies and eliminating positions and cutting payroll, et cetera.

And now here I am living the same thing all over again.

PAUL SOLMAN: Private equity's response?

The industry's lobbying group sent us this: "The private equity industry is working around the clock to save retailers and support their employees.

We are all in this crisis together."

Now, across the country, some stores are opening up.

But, say would-be consumers Leslie and John Dorman on Beverly Hills' fabled Rodeo Drive: LESLIE DORMAN, Consumer: Even if retailers open, are people ready to go shopping?

JOHN DORMAN, Consumer: You know, I want them to reopen things safely.

I'm not in a rush to get things back to where they were before this hit.

PAUL SOLMAN: And neither are retail workers like Macy's' Janet Dee.

JANET DEE: It's not like where you can just stand behind a counter and just ring the customer up, and then just push the package up.

There's a lot of service areas, cosmetics, fragrances, the mattress department.

People come in, they want to lay on a mattress.

They want to see what they're buying.

But how do you keep it safe?

PAUL SOLMAN: So, workers and shoppers remain wary, says analyst Neil Saunders.

NEIL SAUNDERS: Confidence takes a moment to destroy.

It can take many, many months to come back.

But then, even among those who may want to go out and shop and miss that activity, a lot of them don't have the means to do so, or they're reluctant to spend because they're nervous about the economy.

PAUL SOLMAN: No arguing with that.

For the "PBS NewsHour," Paul Solman.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now: how transit workers in this country have been hit particularly hard.

Drivers and transport workers represent the second highest percentage of work-related cases of COVID-19.

William Brangham will talk about those risks.

But let's begin by hearing from four workers still on the job.

WENDY LOCCISANO, New York City Transit Authority: My name is Wendy Loccisano, and I am a station agent with the New York City Transit Authority.

WILLIAM MORA, New York City Transit Authority: My name is William Mora, and I'm a subway conductor.

LATASHA GIARDINA, Bus Operator, Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority: My name is Latasha Giardina, and I'm a bus operator.

CHRIS MORALEZ, Bus Driver, Region Transportation District: My name is Chris Moralez, and I am also a bus driver LATASHA GIARDINA: I have days where I'm just crying on the bus.

I'm afraid to bring it home.

I have children.

I have a husband who is older.

CHRIS MORALEZ: You don't know if you're getting into a contaminated bus or contaminated area.

You just have to treat everything like it is contaminated.

So, it makes it very stressful.

It makes it stressful because we don't have the correct PPEs.

WILLIAM MORA: I'm an ex-Marine.

So, I mean, stress, I have dealt with stress.

This feels different because the enemy is invisible.

We don't know who the enemy is.

We can't see it.

WENDY LOCCISANO: I had COVID.

You try to say, you know what?

Whatever is meant to be will be.

I got through it the first time.

I still have a job to do.

I have to get paid.

I have kids to fed.

You can't -- you can't live life every day being scared.

But when I hear somebody that I know died, you just say to yourself, is it -- is it worth it?

WILLIAM MORA: There is no funeral.

We can't attend any funerals.

So, I think that's the hard part of this.

Yes, we know he -- they passed away, but there's no, like, real closure.

Like, there's no way for us to pay proper respect.

WENDY LOCCISANO: It hasn't numbed me at all.

It just -- it gets me sad.

But then the anger hits.

And it's like you start questioning everything that was done, that could -- could it have been done differently?

Could the governor, could the mayor, could MTA management, could anybody maybe stop some of the deaths that did happen, if they would have prepared and maybe outfitted us sooner, instead of -- I mean, they just -- they just -- they weren't - - they weren't ready.

CHRIS MORALEZ: Some of us are in our buses from eight to nine hours a day.

They give us one set of gloves.

I don't bring a lunch anymore.

For eight-and-a-half-hours, I do not eat lunch because, I don't know if I'm contaminating myself by eating the lunch.

They just passed the order that anybody that rides transit has to wear a mask.

Again, we're in a position that we cannot enforce that.

All we can do is educate and accommodate.

They're never good at putting policies in place that will -- that will be functional for you as an operator out in the street.

LATASHA GIARDINA: They actually just reopened, like, the parks.

They just reopened, like, the beaches.

I mean, it's gotten out of control.

Like, the people have come out like it never happened.

I think reopening was the worst thing they could have made.

It's not the right time for it.

It's really not the right time for it.

So, it's definitely putting a strain on us.

WILLIAM MORA: Transit is the lifeline of New York City.

Without us, nothing moves.

But we don't get -- we -- often, we don't get appreciated as much.

LATASHA GIARDINA: We get these people to the doctors, to the hospital, to their jobs, to the grocery store.

If they didn't have us, they would not be able to get to these places that were so important.

WENDY LOCCISANO: Think about what you say and how you say it, because, people, we're out there, we're trying, we're trying really hard.

And just smile.

Even just a simple smile, a little wave goes just a long way down there.

I think people now, maybe after all this, will appreciate each other just a little more.

I think you will give that extra smile, that extra, hey, nice to see you again, just because you are really happy to see them.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: For more on the central role that public transportation plays in society and some of the concerns about safeguarding workers and passengers, I'm joined now by Sarah Feinberg.

She's the interim president of New York City Transit, which oversees all the subways and buses in that big city.

Sarah Feinberg, thank you very much for being here.

You just heard some of those voices of transit workers all over the country and the concerns they have about going back to work in this pandemic.

Can you help us -- how do you guarantee that those workers will be safe, so that we can reopen?

SARAH FEINBERG, Interim President, New York City Transit: Yes, thank you for having me.

So, look, it is -- this has been unprecedented for the city of New York, for the state of New York.

But this has also been an unprecedented crisis for New York City Transit.

So, New York City Transit is made up of 53,000 men and women who show up every day to operate buses and to operate trains and to get people safely from one place to the other.

So, reassurances that I can give is that we are doing everything we can possibly do to keep people as safe and healthy as we as we can.

So, we are distributing massive amounts of personal protective equipment, gloves, masks, suits, face shields, hand sanitizer.

We are cleaning and disinfecting our stations and our trains and our rail cars, you know, sometimes two, four, six, seven times a day.

We are testing new cleaning solutions, new cleaning tools, so that we make sure we're using the best products.

So I can give people assurances on all those fronts.

You know, I can't give them assurances and promise that their federal government will step up.

I can't promise them that the guidance that we will get from the CDC will be perfect.

You know, at the beginning of this pandemic, for weeks, the CDC told us not to distribute masks, because, you know, they were only for sick people and that they wouldn't help the healthy.

Well, we eventually decided to go out on our own and distribute masks anyway.

So, I can reassure people that I will continue to do everything I can possibly do to keep them safe.

And I can tell them that I hope that I will have federal partners that will do the same.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: What about the issue of hazard pay?

As you know, there's a lot of workers who feel that the work they are doing is demonstrably hazardous and they ought to be compensated for that.

Is that a possibility?

SARAH FEINBERG: Absolutely.

I think myself and the CEO of MTA were the first ones to call for hazard pay, amazingly, even before the unions did.

I absolutely believe that the folks who are operating the system and cleaning the system deserve hazard pay.

And the federal government should step up and should create a fund for it.

The governor and others have called for a heroes compensation fund, similar to after 9/11.

Absolutely, the Congress should act, and they should act now, and they should send hazard pay to our workers.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: If the city reopens in full, and people start going back to being on buses and subways at the regularity that anyone who's been in New York City knows what those are like, how do you guarantee that people are not too crowded together on buses and subway trains, so that they then are spreading the virus themselves?

SARAH FEINBERG: We're New York City.

We're the largest -- and we're MTA.

We're the largest transportation system in North America, not just on the East Coast, not just in the country, in all of North America.

So it's not really a question for us on whether the ridership comes back.

It's when and how quickly and to what degree.

People need the transit system in New York.

A lot of people don't have cars.

Congestion is so bad in this city that it would -- you know, it wouldn't work if you had a car.

And so the transit system is an absolute requirement that it function and function well in New York City.

So, riders will come back.

But, to your point, it's important for folks to understand that an expectation of six feet is going to be a tough one to ever meet in New York City and, in fact, to ever meet in most cities, and ever to meet in most transit systems.

We are talking a lot -- we spend a lot of time talking about the social distance of six feet, plus a mask.

And that is great.

That is absolutely ideal.

As the city opens up, as the economy opens back up, six feet is not going to be an option really for anyone in a lot of places in the city.

And so our advice is going to be, set expectations, be vigilant about your mask usage, and put as much distance between yourself and the person next to you as you can, and give yourself a break.

Look, it's important for people to realize - - I know everyone wants to get where they're going quickly, efficiently, on time.

It's really important for people to understand that the most important thing is to keep themselves healthy and safe.

And so, if you have to wait for the next bus, if you have to wait for the next train, if the situation is crowded, and you want to walk a little bit, and then take the next train, that's going to be a better solution for everyone.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, Sarah Feinberg of New York City Transit, thank you very, very much.

SARAH FEINBERG: Yes, thank you.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now it's time for Ask Us.

That's where we take your questions on the pandemic to experts who are helping us navigate these unprecedented times.

We get your questions from our Web site, from Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.

For the record, Facebook is a funder of the "NewsHour."

Amna Nawaz has more.

AMNA NAWAZ: Thanks, Judy.

And thanks to all of you for sending us your questions.

Now, with so many communities opening back up across the country, a lot of you wrote in with questions on how to avoid catching or transmitting the coronavirus.

To answer those questions and those concerns, we're joined by Angela Rasmussen.

She's a virologist at Columbia University and holds a Ph.D. in microbiology.

Angela, welcome to the "NewsHour."

Thanks for being here.

ANGELA RASMUSSEN, Virologist, Columbia University: Thanks for having me, Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, let's jump right into these questions now.

The first one comes from Carol Campbell.

She's in Lynn, Massachusetts.

She reached out to us on Facebook.

And she sent us this video: CAROL CAMPBELL, Massachusetts: If a runner has the virus and coughs out loud, because there's no one around, does the virus linger in the air or on the ground?

And, if yes, how long is the virus still viable?

AMNA NAWAZ: Angela, it's an important question dealing with maybe asymptomatic carriers out in public without masks.

What do you say to her?

ANGELA RASMUSSEN: We don't really know in every situation how long the virus will linger in the air.

But, in general, if you are just passing somebody on the street, walking by them, whether you're running or walking, the risk of transmission is probably fairly low.

And the reason for that is that, in many cases where we have seen transmissions, they're usually happening in indoor environments, environments that have a lot of people or large crowds of people, where you're talking to that person for a longer duration of time.

So, if you're just sort of incidentally passing somebody while you're out running or jogging, whether they cough or sneeze or anything else, the risk is not zero, but it's likely quite low.

AMNA NAWAZ: It's very good to know.

We will hopefully ease some concerns out there.

Let's move on to our next question.

It comes from Nancy Pardo.

She's from Mount Prospect, Illinois.

And Nancy sent us this video: NANCY PARDO, Illinois: Why are other countries spraying disinfectant on the streets if it's safe to go outside?

Should the U.S. be doing the same in New York, for instance?

AMNA NAWAZ: Angela, we have seen some of these videos in other countries, those masses of gases as people are spraying down subways and streets.

What should we know about that?

Should the U.S. be doing it?

ANGELA RASMUSSEN: So, I think that there is a difference between spraying down surfaces in a subway car vs. spraying down the road.

To my knowledge, there is a very low, if not completely nonexistent risk from contracting coronavirus that might be on the ground, unless you're licking the ground or exposing your mouth, your nose to the bottom of your shoes.

A subway car is a different story.

In a subway car, you're going to have people breathing, producing respiratory droplets and potentially touching those surfaces.

And you could potentially touch one of those surfaces, touch your hand to your mouth or nose and become infected that way.

Certainly, there can be some value within an indoor environment, where there has been cases of transmission, to disinfect high-touch surfaces like a subway car.

But, in general, I don't think that it's necessary to go out and start disinfecting the entire environment outdoors in the United States.

AMNA NAWAZ: Moving right along now to our next question, it comes to us from Liberty, Missouri.

That's where we find Linda Armstrong.

She reached out to us on Facebook and she sent us this video: LINDA ARMSTRONG, Missouri: What is the risk of swimming in a shared swimming pool?

AMNA NAWAZ: It's a very simple question, Angela.

What do you say to her?

ANGELA RASMUSSEN: So, nobody has done any studies on SARS-Coronavirus-2 and how long it can persist in bodies of water, such as swimming pools, lakes, rivers, or the ocean.

However, a group recently did analysis of other studies that had been published on other coronaviruses.

And, in general, coronaviruses are fairly sensitive to chlorine and other oxidants that are put in swimming pools to disinfect them.

So, at a pool, you're probably very unlikely to become infected by swimming in the actual pool.

The biggest risk is going to be in crowds of people.

So, one thing people should keep in mind is that viruses cannot reproduce on their own.

They require a host to infect.

So, you're always going to be at a higher risk of exposure to a virus when you're around other hosts.

And for this virus, those other hosts are other people.

So, if you're going to the pool or the beach in the summer, just make sure that you are practicing good physical distancing and avoiding crowds.

AMNA NAWAZ: All very good, useful information in this summer.

Our last question comes to us from Gabriel Atchison.

She's from Buffalo, New York.

She reached out to us on our Web site, and she sent us this video: GABRIEL ATCHISON, New York: I'm relying on deliveries of food and supplies in effort to stay home.

How worried do we have to be about COVID-19 on cardboard boxes and plastic bags?

Also, can the disease pass through food?

AMNA NAWAZ: Angela, so many people relying on those deliveries now.

What do we know about transmission through the boxes and also through the food?

ANGELA RASMUSSEN: That's an excellent question.

This has actually been studied for SARS-Coronavirus-2.

And the virus can persist on cardboard for up to 24 hours.

It can persist on plastic surfaces for up to three days, according to these experiments that were done under laboratory conditions.

However, it's really important to note that, in these studies, after that period of time, while there was still infectious virus detectable, there were 1,000 times less virus particles than there were at the beginning of the experiment.

And the good news about groceries and packages in general is that, if you wash your hands after you're handling these packages, the risk becomes even lower, to the point where it's probably minimal.

As far as eating the virus and becoming infected with it by consuming food, we don't really have any information about that.

But when you are eating, you're generally swallowing things.

And those things go into your stomach, which is a very high -- highly acidic environment.

Most enveloped viruses, like coronaviruses, cannot survive and remain stable in that environment.

Personally, I don't worry about contracting the virus from the food that I eat and the groceries that I prepare for meals for my family.

AMNA NAWAZ: Always good to know what someone, an expert in microbiology, is doing herself.

Angela Rasmussen, thank you so much for taking the time to be with us today and taking these questions.

ANGELA RASMUSSEN: It's my pleasure.

Thank you for having me, Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: And thanks to all of you for your questions.

You can send us more any time via "NewsHour"'s Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts or on our Web site.

That's PBS.org/NewsHour.

JUDY WOODRUFF: A lot of good advice.

Thank you, Amna.

And that's the "NewsHour" for tonight.

I'm Judy Woodruff.

For all of us at the "PBS NewsHour," thank you, please stay safe, and we'll see you soon.