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TED: COMING UP NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON," THE IMPACT OF U.S. TARIFFS ON TOMATOES IMPORTED FROM MEXICO?

>>> ALSO TONIGHT, A LOOK INTO THE STATUS OF LOCAL AND NATIONAL WEATHER WARNING SYSTEMS.

>>> AND WE'LL HEAR ABOUT NEW INITIATIVES AIMED AT COMBATING ARIZONA'S PERSISTENT DOCTOR SHORTAGE.

THOSE STORIES AND MORE NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON."

.

TED: GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO "ARIZONA HORIZON."

I'M TED SIMONS.

CHECK OF HEADLINES, SPEAKER OF THE U.S. HOUSE MIKE JOHNSON PLANS TO SHUT THE HOUSE DOWN FOR EARLY MONTH LONG SUMMER RECESS WITHOUT ADDRESSING CALLS FOR MORE TRANSPARENCY INTO THE INVESTIGATION OF THE LATE JEFFREY EPSTEIN, A SEX OFFENDER AND FORMER FRIEND OF PRESIDENT TRUMP.

THE SPEAKER'S DECISION IS NOT SITTING WELL WITH DEMOCRATS AND SOME OF JOHNSON'S FELLOW REPUBLICANS.

>> IT WOULD BEHOOVE THE SPEAKER TO BRING THIS TO THE FLOOR.

IT WOULD BE IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THIS INSTITUTION.

JUST VOTE THIS OUT, GIVE IT TO THE SENATE AND LET THEM DO THEIR THING.

>> I DON'T THINK THIS ISSUE IS GOING AWAY OVER AUGUST.

I THINK THAT WAS THE ADMONITION OF OUR SPEAKER IS TO STICK YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND, LET THE ADMINISTRATION DISSIPATE THIS BY DRIBBLING SOME STUFF OUT.

I'M HEAVILY PARAPHRASING, BUT I THINK THAT'S HIS STRATEGY, AND I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO WORK.

>> THE SPEAKER INSISTS THERE'S NO REASON FOR CONGRESS TO MOVE ON AT THIS POINT, AT LEAST NOT RIGHT NOW.

>> YOU HAVE TO ALLOW THE ADMINISTRATION TO RIPEN AND ALLOW THE ADMINISTRATION THE SPACE TO DO WHAT IT IS DOING.

PRESIDENT HAS ORDERED D.O.J.

TO DO WHAT IT IS WE'VE ALL NEEDED D.O.J.

TO DO FOR YEARS NOW, THAT IS TO GET EVERYTHING RELEASED.

THEY'RE IN THE PROCESS OF THAT.

THERE'S NO PURPOSE FOR CONGRESS TO PUSH AN ADMINISTRATION TO DO SOMETHING THEY'RE ALREADY DOING.

TED: OTHER HEADLINES, FORMER NAVAJO NATION PRESIDENT JONATHAN NEZ IS RUNNING FOR 2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.

HE LOST TO REPUBLICAN ELI CRANE IN LAST YEAR'S RACE FOR CD2 BUT THE RACE WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE AND NEZ OUTPERFORMED FORMER VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS IN THE DISTRICT.

NEZ WAS ENDORSED BY MOST OF THE TOP DEMOCRATS AFTER TODAY'S ANNOUNCEMENT.

>>> SUZANNE PFISTER DIED OF CANCER, SHE WAS 67.

SHE LED VITALIST HEALTH FOUNDATION WHERE SHE WAS PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE.

INDEED NAMED A LOCAL CIVIC GROUP AND SUZANNE PFISTER WAS PROBABLY PART OF IT, ARIZONA HOSPITAL AND HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATION.

STATE PARKS FOUNDATION AND GREATER PHOENIX LEADERSHIP.

SUZANNE PFISTER DEAD AT 67.

>>> AND ANOTHER PASSING TO REPORT, OZZY OSBOURNE DIED.

HE WAS 76.

A NUMBER OF HEALTH ISSUES INCLUDING PARKINSON'S DISEASE.

HE HELPED INVENT HEAVY METAL AS LEAD SINGER OF BLACK SABBATH, HE HAD A SUCCESSFUL CAREER ON STAGE AND ON TV.

OSBOURNE'S DEATH COMES WEEKS AS WHAT WAS BILLED THE FINAL SHOW WITH BLACK SABBATH.

OZZY OSBOURNE DEAD AT 76.

>>> THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RECENTLY IMPLEMENTED A 17% TARIFF ON TOMATOES IMPORTED FROM MEXICO.

THE MOVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY IN A VARIETY OF WAYS.

WE WELCOME DOMENICO FERRARO FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF W.P.

CAREY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

>> GOOD TO BE HERE.

TED: 17% DUTY ON FRESH TOMATOES FROM MEXICO.

THE GOAL IS TO REBUILD THE U.S. TOMATO MARKET IN PARTICULAR HERE, DOES THAT MAKE SENSE TO YOU?

>> IT MAKES SENSE IF YOU TAKE THE PERSPECTIVE OF FLORIDA, PRODUCER OF TOMATOES.

THEY'RE A BIG PRODUCER OF TOMATOES, INCLUDING CALIFORNIA.

FROM THAT POINT OF VIEW, ONE COULD ARGUE THE TARIFFS PROTECT FLORIDA PRODUCERS SO THEY BENEFIT FROM THE TRAIT RESTRICTIONS.

HOWEVER, IF YOU TAKE THE VIEW OF ALL THE STATES THAT IMPORT TOMATOES FROM MEXICO, LIKE ARIZONA, THERE IS A BIG IMPORTER OF TOMATOES, THE PERSPECTIVE IS DIFFERENT BECAUSE THERE'S NO PROTECTION ANY ARIZONA PRODUCERS, BUT TARIFF IS GOING TO INCREASE THE PRICE OF FRESH TOMATOES THAT WE ALL GOING TO FIND AT GROCERY STORES.

TED: THE IMPACT ON ARIZONA'S TOMATO INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY.

IMPACT IS A LOT IN A VARIETY OF WAYS, IN A SENSE YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL, YOU HAVE FOLKS THAT DO THE PACKING, THAT DO THE TRAVELING, DISTRIBUTION, AND WE'RE A BORDER STATE.

THAT'S GOING TO HAVE TO HIT US PRETTY HARD?

>> AGREE, AND IT'S GOING TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF DISTRIBUTION PRODUCTION RELATED TO TOMATOES.

ONLY ABOUT THE PRICE OF FRESH TOMATOES IN A GROCERY STORE.

IT'S ALSO ABOUT THE PRICE OF SALADS AND PIZZAS PRODUCED WITH TOMATOES.

IN ADDITION TO THAT, THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF DISTRIBUTORS OF FRESH TOMATOES TO WHOLESALERS AND RETAILERS.

IT IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IT.

TED: WHO ABSORBS THE TARIFFS?

AGAIN, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF, HE KEEPS SAYING THIS IS GOING TO COST MEXICO, MEXICO HAS TO PAY FOR ALL THIS.

SEEMS TO ME THAT THE INDUSTRY, PEOPLE WITHIN THE INDUSTRY AND EVENTUALLY THE CONSUMERS PAY FOR ALL THIS.

WHAT AM I MISSING HERE?

>> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

LET ME GET SOMETHING STRAIGHT HERE.

WHAT IS A TARIFF ON A TOMATO?

EVERY TIME A FRESH TOMATO CROSSES THE BORDER FROM MEXICO TO ARIZONA, THE U.S. IMPORTER, PAY A DUTY TARIFF ON 17% ON ANY FRESH TOMATO IMPORTED FROM MEXICO.

SAY THE PRICE IS 100, NOW YOU PAY 117.

THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON PRICES OF TOMATOES IS PRICES GO UP, THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER MEXICAN PRODUCERS ANTICIPATE LOWER DEMAND FROM ARIZONA IMPORTERS.

U.S. IMPORTERS, MAY END UP LOWERING THE PRICE OF TOMATOES EXPORTED TO THE U.S. >> COULD BE A BALANCING OUT ONCE YOU GET DOWN THE LINE?

>> IF YOU LOOK AT RESEARCH IN THE LAST 50 YEARS, THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME BALANCING OUT, BUT IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE IT'S GOING TO BE ALL THE WAY.

I THINK OVERALL, THE PRICES GO UP BY 10%, IF A DUTY REMAINS AT 17%.

TED: WILL THEY GO UP HIGHER IN ARIZONA THAN THEY WILL IN IDAHO OR NEW HAMPSHIRE?

>> THAT DEPENDS WHETHER THOSE STATES PRODUCE TOMATO, A CLOSE SUBSTITUTE OF THE TOMATOES THAT WE IMPORT FROM MEXICO.

TO THE EXTENT, THERE IS NO CLOSE SUBSTITUTE OR ALTERNATIVE TO THE GREENHOUSE TOMATOES PRODUCED IN MEXICO, THEN THE PRICES MAY CHANGE DIFFERENTLY, DEPENDING WHERE YOU LIVE.

TED: INTERESTING.

FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND, MEXICO SUPPLIES 70% OF THE TOMATO MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES.

THAT'S UP FROM 30% DECADES AGO.

SOUNDS LIKE DUMPING IS GOING ON.

IS DUMPING GOING ON?

>> OVER THE YEARS, THE MEXICO GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN SUBSIDIZING THE PRODUCTION OF GREENHOUSE FRESH TOMATOES, TO THE EXTENT WE THINK IT IS IMPEDING THE FAIR GAME OF COMPETITION IN COUNTRIES, THEN THE CASE FOR ANTI-DUMPING COULD BE MADE, THE QUESTION IS THAT THIS TARIFF WOULD PROTECT FLORIDA PRODUCERS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE DETRIMENTAL FOR ARIZONA BECAUSE WE ARE THE BIG IMPORTER OF FRESH TOMATOES FROM MEXICO.

>> YOU MENTIONED FRESH TOMATOES AND GREENHOUSE TOMATOES.

THIS COMES FROM MEXICO.

WHEN YOU GO TO FLORIDA, THEY'RE GROWN OUT OF THE GROUND OR WHATEVER, AND PACKED THAT WAY.

THEY'RE GROWN GREEN AND TURN RED, AND FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND, FLORIDA TOMATOES HAVE NOTHING IN TERMS OF TASTE COMPARED TO THE MEXICAN TOMATOES.

THE MEXICAN TOMATOES ARE GROWN TO TASTE BETTER.

>> THAT'S CORRECT.

I USED TO BELIEVE TOMATO IS TOMATO, BUT SO MANY VARIETIES OF TOMATOES.

THAT MATTERS A LOT BECAUSE IT'S NOT EASY TO SUBSTITUTE THE WAY FROM THE GREENHOUSE PRODUCTION OF TOMATOES THAN IN MEXICO.

WHY?

BECAUSE TOMATOES DIFFER BY SIZE, SHAPE AND FLAVOR, AND TYPICALLY THOSE THAT ARE PRODUCED WITH GREENHOUSES HAVE A DIFFERENT FLAVOR THAN THOSE PRODUCED OPEN FIELD LIKE IN FLORIDA.

TED: OPEN FIELD, YOU GOT TO PRODUCE THEM DURING A CERTAIN TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE GREENHOUSE MEANS THEY'RE AVAILABLE YEARAROUND?

>> THAT'S AN IMPORTANT ADVANTAGE OF GREENHOUSE PRODUCTION THAT ALLOWS PRODUCER TO SMOOTH PRODUCTION OVER THE YEARS INSTEAD OF PRODUCTION LASTING A FEW MONTHS OF THE YEAR.

TED: THE 20-MONTH DEAL U.S.

SIGNED WITH MEXICO TO PREVENT DUMPING, DOES THAT GO AWAY?

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE AGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES?

>> SINCE 1996, THERE'S BEEN AGREEMENT AND SUSPENSION OF AGREEMENT EVERY FIVE YEARS, WHAT I'M EXPECTING IS RIGHT NOW, IT'S NOT UNLIKELY WE HAVE A NEW AGREEMENT WITH PRETTY MUCH U.S. PRODUCERS THROUGH THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, AND MEXICAN PRODUCER TO SEE TO IT AT THE BARGAINING TABLE, THE NEW PRICE THAT MEXICO PRODUCERS CAN SELL WITHIN THE U.S. >> WITH THE NEGOTIATIONS, TARIFFS CAN POP UP AGAIN.

HE HAS GONE BACK ON IT BEFORE, HE COULD DO IT HERE?

>> YOU HAVE AN AGREEMENT, IT IS BASED ON A NEGOTIATED PRICE WITHOUT TARIFFS.

IF YOU DON'T REACH AGREEMENT, WE KEEP ON ADDING THE 17% TARIFF.

TED: WOW, LAST QUESTION.

I HEARD YOU SAY 10%, WHAT POINT DO WE LOOK AT TOMATOES AND SAY WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE PRICING?

THAT'S GOING TO HIT SOON?

>> THE PRICING UNFOLDS OVER THE SHORT TERM, THE MEDIUM TERM AND THE LONG TERM.

IF WE TRANSFER THE NEW REGIME OF PERMANENTLY HIGHER TARIFFS, THE PRICE IS GOING TO GO UP.

HOW FAST?

IT DEPENDS.

DEPENDS ON WHICH AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT MONTHS OR NOT, AND WHETHER FLORIDA STARTS PRODUCING WITH THE GREENHOUSE PRODUCTION THAT MAY BE HARD TO DO IT IN THE SHORT RUN, BUT CAN BE DONE IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RUN.

TED: DOMENICO FERRARO, ASU, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US, WE APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

.

TED: HOW PREPARED IS ARIZONA AND THE U.S.

WHEN IT COMES TO WEATHER EMERGENCIES?

IT'S A QUESTION BEING ASKED IN MANY AREAS OF THE COUNTRY AFTER FLOODING KILLED 134 PEOPLE IN PARTS OF TEXAS THAT OFFICIALS SAID DID NOT HAVE ADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS.

JOINING US IS CLIMATOLOGIST RANDY CERVENY.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

HOW PREPARED ARE WE -- START IN ARIZONA.

HOW PREPARED ARE WE FOR WEATHER EMERGENCIES IN GENERAL?

>> WE HAVE VERY GOOD INFRASTRUCTURE IN PLACE, NOT ONLY WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, THAT'S WHERE A LOT OF THE INITIAL DISCUSSION INVOLVING THE TEXAS SITUATION WAS WITH, BUT WE HAVE A HUGE NUMBER OF METEOROLOGISTS THAT ARE IN SITUATIONS HERE IN ARIZONA THAT CAN HELP WITH REGARDS TO WARNING.

SALT RIVER PROJECT, THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT.

THOSE PEOPLE ARE VITAL TO GIVING GOOD WEATHER INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.

TED: OKAY, SO WITH THAT IN MIND, WHAT DID WE LEARN FROM THE TEXAS FLOODINGS?

>> I THINK THE BIGGEST THING IS COMMUNICATION.

ONE OF THE PROBLEMS -- EVEN THOUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THERE IN TEXAS HAD ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING AS EARLY AS 4:00 IN THE MORNING, THREE HOURS BEFORE THE ACTUAL EVENT TOOK PLACE, THE INFORMATION WAS NOT TRANSMITTED CORRECTLY.

TED: WOW.

>> AND THAT'S FRUSTRATING, WHETHER PEOPLE CAN DO THEIR JOBS AND THEN THE INFORMATION THAT THEY'RE COMING UP WITH DOESN'T GET PROPERLY DECIMATED, THAT'S A BIG PROBLEM.

TED: CAN THAT INFORMATION BE SENT OUT AND DISTRIBUTED BY WAY OF A WEATHER APP?

WE ALL HAVE APPS ON OUR PHONES, WHY CAN'T WE USE WEATHER APPS?

>> THAT'S A THIRD PARTY, YOU SEE.

PEOPLE THINK WE DON'T NEED THE WEATHER SERVICE WE'VE GOT WEATHER APPS.

THE PROBLEM IS ALL THE INFORMATION THAT COMES ON YOUR WEATHER APP IS DERIVED FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INFORMATION, THAT THE FORECASTS THAT ARE PUT OUT ON THOSE APPS ARE THE RESULT OF ALL THE WEATHER INFORMATION THAT WE HAVE GATHERED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TED: SO AS FAR AS PREDICTING THE WEATHER, FORECASTING THE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER, ARE THERE UPGRADES?

YOU HAVE A DEVICE HERE.

THIS HELPS WITH THE FORECAST?

>> DOESN'T SEEM LIKE MUCH.

THIS IS A CRITICAL PART OF WEATHER FORECASTING.

THIS IS A RADIO SON, ATTACHED TO A WEATHER BALLOON, WE BLANCHE WEATHER BALLOONS AT MULTIPLE SITES, 140 SITES AROUND THE COUNTRY, TWICE A DAY.

ONCE AT 5:00 IN THE MORNING, ONCE AT 5:00 AT NIGHT.

AS THEY GO UP, THEY DISTRIBUTE TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY, WIND, ALL OF THAT GOES INTO THE COMPUTER WEATHER MODELS THAT TELL US WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

WE'RE HAVING FEWER OF THESE NOW.

TED: WHY ARE WE HAVING FEWER OF THESE?

>> THAT'S THE GOOD POLITICAL QUESTION, NOT SOMETHING THAT'S NECESSARILY THE RESULT OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

WHEN WE CUT BACK ON THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT ARE WORKING AT THE WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NUMBER OF THINGS LIKE THIS, EVEN OUR RADAR SYSTEMS ARE BECOMING OUTDATED, THOSE ARE ALL SITUATIONS THAT LEAD TO A TRAGEDY IN THE FUTURE.

TED: SO IT SOUNDS AS THOUGH WE'RE IN DANGER OF THE FORECASTING BECOMING OUTDATED.

THE EMERGENCY INFORMATION, IS THAT BECOMING OUTDATED?

I MEAN, WHAT HAPPENED IN TEXAS OBVIOUSLY WAS MISCOMMUNICATION AND WAS A PROBLEM, AND I'M SURE THEY'LL FIX THAT, BUT IS THAT SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO BE A PROBLEM AGAIN IN OTHER AREAS?

>> WELL, TEXAS HAS THE SAME KIND OF PROBLEM WE MIGHT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH AS WELL, AND THAT'S THAT A LOT OF OUR PLACES ARE VERY REMOTE, AND GETTING COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION INTO THE REMOTE AREAS IN TIME TO SAVE THE PEOPLE BECOMES VERY PROBLEMATIC.

WE HAVE PEOPLE LOOKING INTO THAT, BUT THE TEXAS KIND OF SITUATION OF FLASH FLOODING, I COULD SEE EASILY HAPPENING AND HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST, UP IN THE MONGOLLON RIM AREA, WHERE WE HAD FLASH FLOODS.

TED: IN THE AREAS, AND WE LEARNED THIS OVER THE YEARS, THERE COULD BE A STORM YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT DUMPING RAIN THAT'S GOING TO HIT YOU IN NO TIME.

>> RIGHT.

I DID A STUDY, IT WAS A HORRIBLE SITUATION BACK IN '96 WHEN WE HAD A FLOOD AROUND PAGE, ARIZONA, AND A NUMBER OF FRENCH TOURISTS WERE KILLED AS THEY WERE GOING INTO ANTELOPE CANYON.

THE PROBLEM IS WHERE THEY WERE AT IT DIDN'T RAIN, BUT THE STORM WAS FIVE MILES SOUTH OF THEM, AND IT WAS ALL CASCADED DOWN INTO ONE NARROW SLOT CANYON.

TED: FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS IN MARICOPA COUNTY AND THE STATE OVERALL, WHAT IS NEEDED?

WHERE DO WE STAND?

WHAT DO YOU SEE?

>> AS OF NOW, MY INTERPRETATION IS OUR INFRASTRUCTURE HERE IS PRETTY GOOD.

WE ARE UNDERSTAFFED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

I'D LOVE TO SEE A FEW MORE PEOPLE COMING IN, MY STUDENTS IN PARTICULAR, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM BEING ABLE TO TAKE THOSE KIND OF JOBS, BUT WE DO HAVE A LOT OF SUPPORT GROUPS LIKE SALT RIVER PROJECT, LIKE THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT, AND I THINK THOSE THINGS ARE HELPING US A LOT MORE THAN MAYBE SOME OF THE MORE AFFECTED AREAS AROUND THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.

TED: LAST QUESTION, CLIMATE CHANGE, HOW MUCH IS CLIMATE CHANGE PLAYING INTO ALL OF THIS?

>> WELL, IT IS, AND THAT'S THE BIG PROBLEM.

AS OUR CLIMATE CHANGES, THINGS LIKE FLASH FLOODING ARE GOING TO BE MORE PREVALENT, THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE MORE FLASH FLOODS.

WE'RE ALSO GOING TO HAVE, UNFORTUNATELY THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, MORE DROUGHTS, THAT OUR WEATHER BECOMES MORE UNPREDICTABLE.

IT WOULD SEEM LIKE WE WANT TO GET AS MUCH INFORMATION ABOUT IT AS POSSIBLE.

TED: IF THE WEATHER IS CHANGING, THE RAINFALL DATA AND OTHER DATA AS WELL, THAT WOULD NEED TO CHANGE AS WELL, I WOULD THINK?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THE MORE INFORMATION WE HAVE, THE BETTER WE'RE GOING TO PINPOINT THE CHANGES THAT ARE OCCURING.

>> ALL RIGHT, ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC?

>> I'M NOT ALARMED YET, BUT I'M NOT OPTIMISTIC.

[ LAUGHTER ] >> OKAY, I TRIED TO GET THAT OUT OF YOU.

RANDY CERVENY, REAL QUICKLY, IT'S 90 DEGREES SOMETHING, WHAT'S HAPPENING?

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE?

>> WE'RE GETTING A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THAT CAN LEAD TO STORMS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE.

SO ENJOY TODAY BECAUSE THE NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE DRY.

TED: GOOD TO SEE YOU, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

.

TED: AS ARIZONA'S POPULATION CONTINUES TO GROW, THE NUMBER OF DOCTORS IN THE STATE IS FALLING BEHIND.

THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA'S COLLEGE OF MEDICINE IN PHOENIX IS INTRODUCING NEW INITIATIVES TO ADDRESS THE STATE'S DOCTOR SHORTAGE.

DR. FREDERIC EDWARD WONDISFORD IS DEAN OF ARIZONA'S COLLEGE OF MEDICINE IN PHOENIX.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

TED: YOU BETCHA.

WE GOT A TEACHER SHORTAGE AND A DOCTOR SHORTAGE.

IT NEVER SEEMS TO CHANGE.

FOR DOCTORS, WHY IS THAT?

>> IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO TRAIN TO BE A DOCTOR, SO THAT'S PART OF IT.

WHEN YOU HAVE A DOCTOR SHORTAGE, YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A 10-YEAR WINDOW, WHAT IT'S GOING TO TAKE TO GET PEOPLE OUT IN PRACTICE, SO WE WERE SHORT OF PHYSICIANS IN 2010, AND, OF COURSE, WITH THE POPULATION GROWTH, WE'RE EVEN SHORT OR PHYSICIANS TODAY.

TED: THE POPULATION GROWTH, HOW BIG A FACTOR IS THAT?

>> IT'S A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE NUMBER OF PHYSICIANS THAT WE'RE DOWN.

IT WAS ESTIMATED WE WOULD BE 50% LESS PHYSICIANS THAN WHAT WE NEED BY 2030.

SOME ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 70% LESS PRIMARY CARE PHYSICIANS BY THE SAME TIME.

TED: AND MORE THAN ONE IN FOUR, RECENT STUDY, ARIZONA ADULTS DO NOT HAVE A PERSONAL DOCTOR.

>> YEAH.

YEAH.

THE PRIMARY CARE PHYSICIAN IS THE FIRST PERSON THAT YOU MEET IN MEDICINE.

SOMETIMES THE ONLY PERSON YOU MEET.

THEY GET YOU PLUGGED IN FOR PREVENTIVE CARE AND REFER TO YOU A SPECIALIST WHEN YOU NEED ADDITIONAL CARE.

TED: AND THE ISSUE I WOULD IMAGINE WOULD BE MUCH WORSE IN RURAL AREAS.

>> DEFINITELY WORSE.

PARTICULARLY IN ARIZONA WITH A LOT OF RURAL AREAS THAT HAVE VERY HIGH -- WHAT THE CDC CALLS THE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDEX.

IF YOU HAVE ONE ON THAT, YOU'RE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

WE HAVE SEVERAL COMMUNITIES IN THE PERIPHERY OF OUR STATE THAT HAVE VERY HIGH SOCIAL VULNERABILITY.

TED: YEAH, AND SO UA COLLEGE OF MEDICINE PHOENIX, ARE YOU WORKING WITH BANNER ON THIS?

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

>> WE ARE.

SO TO MINT A NEW DOCTOR, WE NEED A MEDICAL SCHOOL, BUT WE ALSO NEED THE TRAINING AFTER MEDICAL SCHOOL, WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS A RESIDENCY, SOME PEOPLE CALL IT GRADUATE MEDICAL EDUCATION, TO BECOME A DOCTOR, A LICENSED PHYSICIAN, YOU NEED BOTH, YOU HAVE TO HAVE AN MD BUT HAVE PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE FROM A RESIDENCY TO GET A LICENSE IN THE STATE.

SO BANNER IS PROVIDING A NUMBER OF NEW POSITIONS, GRADUATE MEDICAL EDUCATION POSITIONS WHICH WE NEED, AND, OF COURSE, WE NEED THE STUDENTS TO GRADUATE TO FILL THOSE POSITIONS.

>> WHEN YOU SAY THERE ARE A NUMBER OF NEW PROGRAMS EXPANDING THE GRADUATE MEDICAL PROGRAM, WHY WASN'T THAT DONE BEFORE?

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

>> THE EVOLUTION OF HEALTH CARE IN OUR STATE.

I THINK IT'S BEEN HELPFUL THAT THERE'S A MEDICAL SCHOOL IN PHOENIX ASSOCIATED WITH BANNER.

THERE'S A VIRTUAL CYCLE.

IF WE GRADUATE STUDENTS, THEY NEED TRAINING, BANNER NEEDS PRACTICING PHYSICIANS.

BANNER THEN AGREES TO FUND ADDITIONAL TRAINING POSITIONS TO HAVE THOSE PHYSICIANS.

TED: AND WE'RE TALKING PRIMARY CARE TRAINING FOR THE MOST PART?

>> NOT ALL PRIMARY CARE, BUT MOSTLY PRIMARY CARE.

THAT WOULD BE FAMILY MEDICINE, GENERAL INTERNAL MEDICINE, GENERAL PEDIATRICS.

TED: CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG, SOUNDS LIKE THESE ARE PRETTY FAST TRACK, YOU CAN GRADUATE MAYBE A YEAR EARLY?

>> CORRECT.

THAT IS THE NEW PROGRAM THAT THE ARIZONA BOARD OF REGENTS APPROVED, AND ALSO OUR ACCREDITING BODY CALLED LCME APPROVED, THAT ALLOWS YOU TO GRADUATE IN THREE YEARS.

OUR PROGRAM IN PARTICULAR, THOUGH, THAT GRADUATE IS GOING TO GO INTO PRIMARY CARE, AND NOT INTO SPECIALTY CARE.

THAT'S WHERE THE ACCELERATED TRACK WOULD BE.

TED: YOU START YOUR RESIDENCY FASTER, PRACTICE FASTER AND GET THE NUMBERS UP?

>> THE OTHER THING THAT IS NOVEL THAT IS IMPORTANT HERE IS THAT THE PRIMARY CARE TRACK, THERE'S A LINKAGE.

SO YOU GO INTO A RESIDENCY, PERHAPS IN THE LOCATION WHERE YOU DID YOUR MEDICAL STUDENT TRAINING, AND YOU STAY IN THAT LOCATION, AND THE STUDIES SHOW THE LONGER YOU TRAIN IN A LOCATION, THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO STAY IN A LOCATION.

TED: ARE THERE INCENTIVES TO STAY IN THE LOCATION?

>> SOME CASES THERE ARE, BUT REALLY IN OUR CASE, THE TUITION WILL BE A FREE TUITION FOR A THREE-YEAR PROGRAM, THAT WILL BE THE FIRST INCENTIVE, AND THE SECOND INCENTIVE WILL BE YOU GRADUATE A YEAR EARLIER.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, GRADUATE A YEAR EARLIER, THAT SOUNDS LIKE LESS IN THE WAY OF DEBT.

IF IT'S FREE, HOLY SMOKES, THERE IS NO DEBT.

>> THIS IS TUITION, THERE IS ALWAYS ROOM AND BOARD, BUT STILL ONE YEAR LESS, THE TUITION DEBT IS LESS.

TED: SCHOLARSHIPS INVOLVED HERE?

>> THERE WILL BE SCHOLARSHIPS.

THERE WILL BE FULL SCHOLARSHIPS FOR THIS TRAINING.

>> IS THERE COLLABORATION, OBVIOUSLY UA AND BANNER WORKING TOGETHER ON THIS.

WHAT ABOUT OTHER HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS, ENTITIES, HERE IN THE VALLEY AROUND AND THE STATE.

IS THERE MORE COLLABORATION TO GET THIS SITUATION FIXED?

>> I THINK THERE IS DEFINITELY COLLABORATION.

OBVIOUSLY ASU IS IN THE MIDDLE OF GETTING THEIR MEDICAL SCHOOL ACCREDITED.

THAT'S GOING TO BE A SOURCE OF GRADUATES.

NAU IS INTERESTED IN FORMING A MEDICAL SCHOOL.

THAT WOULD BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF GRADUATES, BUT PROBABLY WE -- MEDICAL STUDENTS ARE ONE THING, BUT WE NEED MORE GRADUATE MEDICAL TRAINING, THE RESIDENCY POSITIONS WE TALK ABOUT TOO, BECAUSE IT'S A CONTINUUM.

TED: AND THE STATE NEEDS TO BE MORE ATTRACTIVE IN GETTING MORE DOCTORS TO COME OUT HERE?

>> YES, BUT IF THEY TRAIN HERE, THEY'RE MORE LIKELY TO STAY HERE.

IT'S MUCH EASIER TO RETAIN SOMEBODY THAN RECRUIT THEM HERE.

TED: I ASKED THE WEATHER GUY IF HE'S OPTIMISTIC, ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE DOCTOR SHORTAGE?

>> VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE HAVE A SOLUTION TOWARD IT, AND I THINK BECAUSE THERE ARE THESE INNOVATIVE PROGRAMS AND WE HAVE THE UNIVERSITIES AS WELL AS OUR REGENTS BEHIND A PROGRAM TO EXPAND MEDICAL EDUCATION HERE.

TED: ALL RIGHT, DR. FRED WONDISFORD, UA COLLEGE OF MEDICINE PHOENIX.

THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

TED: THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING.