
Experts on if U.S. weapons pause will change Israeli tactics
Clip: 5/9/2024 | 8m 52sVideo has Closed Captions
Middle East experts discuss if U.S. weapons pause will change Israel's tactics in Gaza
Will the Biden administration's holding up sending bombs to pressure Israel from launching a large-scale assault on Rafah have the desired effect? Nick Schifrin has views from Dennis Ross, who played leading roles in the Middle East peace process for more than 12 years, and Tom Malinowski, former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy and Human Rights during the Obama administration.
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Experts on if U.S. weapons pause will change Israeli tactics
Clip: 5/9/2024 | 8m 52sVideo has Closed Captions
Will the Biden administration's holding up sending bombs to pressure Israel from launching a large-scale assault on Rafah have the desired effect? Nick Schifrin has views from Dennis Ross, who played leading roles in the Middle East peace process for more than 12 years, and Tom Malinowski, former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy and Human Rights during the Obama administration.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipAMNA NAWAZ: More now on the Biden administration's# decision to suspend some weapons deliveries to## Israel to pressure it against a large-scale# invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah.
Nick Schifrin is back here in studio now.
And, Nick, as you have been reporting, President# Biden wants the Netanyahu government to do more## to limit civilian deaths in Rafah, where more# than a million people are now sheltering -- Nick.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Amna, the decision# pauses the delivery of 3,500 bombs,## about half of them 2,000-pound bombs# that the U.S. police have caused the## most civilian casualties in Gaza.# President Biden also warned that## more weapons deliveries could be paused if# Israel launches that full invasion of Rafah.
So, will the decision have the desired effect?
For that, we get two views.
Ambassador Dennis# Ross played leading roles in the Middle East## peace process for more than 12 years.
He is# now a counselor and a distinguished fellow## at the Washington Institute for Near# East Policy, a Washington think tank.
And Tom Malinowski was assistant# secretary of state for democracy,## human rights and labor during the Obama# administration, and is a former member## of Congress.
He's now a nonresident# senior fellow at the McCain Institute.
Thanks very much to both of you.# Welcome back to the "NewsHour."
Ambassador Ross, let me start with you.
Will the Israeli government now take more into# account Biden administration over Rafah than## it would have had this decision not# been made and not been made public?
DENNIS ROSS, Former U.S.
Envoy to Middle# East: Look, it's an excellent question.
My sense is, from a political standpoint, it# will be harder for Prime Minister Netanyahu## to look like he's responding to President# Biden, not in terms of the body politic## of Israel as a whole, but in terms of# the right-wing of his own coalition.
So how he manages that, I think, remains# to be seen.
Now, having said that,## I don't see him wanting to put Israel# in a position where suddenly it's losing## access to some of the munitions it's# likely to need, not so much for Rafah,## but because it still faces very real# threats from Hezbollah in the north.
It's not in Israel's interest to create# an image of a gap, a division with the## United States.
That could make a conflict in# the north with Hezbollah more likely.
And,## frankly, it's also not in Israel's interest,# because I think it probably also increases## the Hamas sense, or at least Yahya# Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza,## increases his sense that he really doesn't# need to make any decisions at all right now.
He's going to play upon the divisions# between the United States and Israel.## So I think both Israel and the# United States have an interest## in finding a way to change that# image that there's a division.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Tom Malinowski, same question.# Is Bibi Netanyahu more likely to take U.S.## warnings seriously today than he# was before this was made public?
FMR.
REP. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-NJ): Well,# he wasn't taking them seriously before.
And that's why the president# made this decision.
Look,## this is the most pro-Israel president in# American history, who's just reached his## limit after months and months of trying to# break through to this government in Israel.
We're still supporting Israel.
He's also# the first president just last month to put## American armed forces on the line defending# Israel against attacks, shooting down... NICK SCHIFRIN: This is the Iranian attack, right.
FMR.
REP. TOM MALINOWSKI: Exactly, shooting down## hundreds of missiles.
He'd do# it again tomorro..
He's just decided something that I think should# be noncontroversial, that we shouldn't be arming## a foreign country to do something that the# United States thinks should not be done.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Dennis Ross, take on# that last point.
Should the United## States be arming a country, Israel in this case,## to do something that it doesn't want# done, namely the invasion of Rafah?
DENNIS ROSS: It's pretty# hard to quarrel with that,## because the fact is, Israel has# its set of interests, but so do we.
And if we to do something that# is wrong or crossed the line or,## in fact, is counterproductive, which is# the real reason that the president has## adopted the position he has -- yes,# there's a moral dimension to this,## but he actually thinks this is self-defeating,# if Israel goes into Rafah on the ground.
Now, having said that, again, the# administration's position is actually## not different from Israel's that Hamas# should not be in control, not only of Gaza,## but they shouldn't be in control of Rafah.
There# ought to be a way for the administration and## Israel to reach an understanding on what# is a way to deal with the Hamas presence## in Rafah without putting at risk 1.3 million# people who are crammed into a very small area.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Well, that is certainly# what the U.S. wants.
Netanyahu has said,## at least publicly, that he needs to go into Rafah.
The impact on the hostage negotiations is the real# divide here.
Israel has accused President Biden,## essentially, of relieving pressure on Sinwar,# as Ambassador Ross said.
John Kirby made the## opposite case, that an invasion of Rafah would# actually hurt Israel in the negotiations.
Tom Malinowski, what do you think?
FMR.
REP. TOM MALINOWSKI: I agree with John Kirby.
But, also, I think that, for Prime Minister# Netanyahu to make that argument doesn't make## a lot of sense to me, because it was Prime# Minister Netanyahu who said repeatedly over## the last several days that he would go into# Rafah whether there's a hostage deal or not.
He took away his own leverage by# making those statements and put## the United States and our allies in the# region in a -- our other allies in the## region in the difficult position of trying# to convince Hamas, you have to give up the## hostages anyway and we will somehow try# to restrain the Israelis from doing this.
So, I don't think he can have it both ways.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Ambassador Ross, take on that## point, that Netanyahu took away his own leverage# by arguing he was going into Rafah regardless.
DENNIS ROSS: Yes, I think it was a mistake for him# to say that.
I think he was saying it because he## was trying to appease his ministers on the far# right, meaning Ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
The most important leverage Israel# has with Sinwar -- and, again, Sinwar,## I think, is different than the political# leadership of Hamas.
The key to, I think,## putting pressure under him is him feeling that# there's a noose that's tightening around his neck.
But, from that standpoint, the# threat of going into Rafah is## far more impressive than actually doing it,# number one.
Number two, if you were saying,## we won't go into Rafah if there's a hostage# release, that too increases the leverage.
I am concerned that, if it looks like we're# doing everything we can to prevent a threat## against Rafah, that that gives Sinwar a certain# degree of comfort.
So I think there is a great## value in the U.S. and the Israelis reaching an# agreement on, A, we share the same strategic## objective as it relates to Hamas in Gaza -- I# mean, in Rafah and Gaza more generally, but,## B, we have reached an understanding about how# to contend with how to remove Hamas from Rafah.
I think that is something that can be achievable.# I do think the issue with Netanyahu relates much## more to the politics of his coalition# than to the reality of what it will take## to succeed in Rafah and to do it in a way that# is consistent with what the U.S. can live with.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Well, when it comes# to the politics of the coalition,## we have got a few graphics to show here.
We have got a tweet from a member of the# coalition who is National Security Minister## Itamar Ben-Gvir right there in response to# the decision, tweeting: "Hamas loves Biden."
And a Jerusalem Post editorial,# there you go, "Betrayal of Allies."
So, Tom Malinowski, in the minute we# have left, is some of the responses,## especially within Netanyahu's# coalition, is that posturing or## is that genuine anger ahead of Israeli# Independence Day, and does it matter?
FMR.
REP. TOM MALINOWSKI: I think they're amping# up the drama.
I think they're hoping to affect## the American political debate on this, hoping# that somehow they can go around Biden and have## others pressure the administration# to change course, which won't work.
I -- those statements, particularly from ministers## who have been convicted by Israeli courts# of support for terrorism themselves,## are not going to have a lot of impact on the# Biden administration's calculus, nor should they.
I think, when the drama subsides, I agree with# Ambassador Ross that, at the end of the day,## Israel and the United States need each# other.
Israel needs the United States## and the supply of weapons that we provide# and the political support that we provide.
And I think the understanding, the common# understanding that Ambassador Ross rightly## says is necessary, about how to actually# defeat Hamas will be where we end up.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Tom Malinowski, Ambassador# Dennis Ross, thank you very much to you both.
DENNIS ROSS: Thank you.
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Major corporate funding for the PBS News Hour is provided by BDO, BNSF, Consumer Cellular, American Cruise Lines, and Raymond James. Funding for the PBS NewsHour Weekend is provided by...